Cass Freight Index

Monthly values

Cass Freight Index — the last 12 months

Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.

Month	Value	Band
Aug 2026	+2.1% YoY	Healthy reading
Jul 2026	-4.8% YoY	Within normal range
Jun 2026	-4.1% YoY	Within normal range
May 2026	-1.2% YoY	Within normal range
Apr 2026	-4.4% YoY	Within normal range
Mar 2026	-4.5% YoY	Within normal range

Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from cass_freight_yoy_12m. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.

What is the Cass Freight?

The Cass Freight Index measures the volume of freight shipments across North America — encompassing truck, rail, air, and ocean freight. Because freight activity reflects actual goods being physically moved through the economy, it provides a real-world validation of economic activity that complements survey-based indicators like the ISM PMI. When factories are producing, retailers are restocking, and consumers are buying, freight volumes rise. When economic activity slows, freight volumes fall.

The year-over-year (YoY) change is the most useful comparison because it removes seasonal patterns that affect absolute freight volumes. Cass Financial Systems processes over $25 billion in freight invoices annually, giving their index a comprehensive view of actual shipping activity. The index is sometimes called the "X-ray of the economy" because it reflects what is actually happening in commerce rather than what survey respondents say is happening.

How We Color-Code the Cass Freight

Our heatmap colors each indicator based on historically significant thresholds:

Above +5% YoY

Strong freight growth — robust economic activity

0% to +5% YoY

Growing freight — healthy economic activity

-5% to 0% YoY

Flat to slightly declining — slowing activity

-10% to -5% YoY

Declining freight — economic slowdown signaled

Below -10% YoY

Sharp freight decline — significant economic weakness

Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?

When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:

2020COVID Shutdown and Boom

YoY: -22% (Apr 2020) then +30% (early 2021)

The COVID freight collapse was followed by the biggest freight boom in history as supply chains strained to meet pent-up goods demand — producing the inflation surge of 2021-2022.

2022-2023Freight Recession

YoY: -15% to -20%

A prolonged freight recession as inventories that had been over-built during COVID supply chain panic were worked down. Coincided with manufacturing PMI contraction but not a broader economic recession.

2021Supply Chain Boom

YoY: +25% at peak

Record freight volumes as the economy reopened and supply chain shortages caused companies to over-order goods — creating the inventory glut that caused the 2022-2023 freight recession.

Investor Checklist — Current Reading

Based on the current Cass Freight reading of +2.1% YoY (Positive):

✓Growing freight — real-world confirmation of economic health

✓Good environment for industrials, transportation, and materials

ℹCompare with ISM Manufacturing — freight confirming PMI is a stronger signal

Frequently Asked Questions

What makes the Cass Freight Index reliable?

Unlike surveys which measure what executives say is happening, the Cass Freight Index measures what is actually happening — real freight invoices processed by Cass Financial Systems. With over $25 billion in annual freight payments processed, the sample is large and representative. It covers all modes: truck, rail, air, and ocean freight across North America.

Why is freight a good economic indicator?

Almost everything the economy produces needs to be physically moved at some point — raw materials to factories, finished goods to distribution centers, products to retailers, and packages to consumers. Freight activity therefore reflects the entire economic supply chain. When freight is strong, the economy is genuinely active; when freight falls, real activity is slowing.

What caused the 2022-2023 freight recession?

During COVID, supply chain panic caused companies to over-order goods to avoid stockouts. By 2022, inventories were bloated and companies stopped ordering new goods while they worked through existing stock — causing freight volumes to collapse even as the broader economy continued growing. This inventory destocking cycle is a natural feature of supply chain dynamics.

Is the freight index more useful than the ISM Manufacturing PMI?

They complement each other rather than compete. ISM measures purchasing managers' sentiment about future orders. Cass Freight measures actual goods movement today. When both move in the same direction, the signal is stronger. When they diverge (as during COVID supply chain distortions), understanding why they diverge provides important insight.

How does freight data relate to transportation company earnings?

Freight volume directly drives revenue for trucking companies (J.B. Hunt, Old Dominion, Werner), railroads (Union Pacific, BNSF), and logistics companies (FedEx, UPS). When Cass Freight is declining YoY, transportation company earnings are likely under pressure. The index can serve as a leading indicator for transportation sector performance.