Data through: September 2026 · updated Oct 13 · Updates: Monthly
MThe three bars show the last 3 months for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 61st percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: Freight volumes are growing — between 0% and 5% above the year before, about 1 month in 4 since 1991 (111 of 429), 0 of them inside a recession.
Cass Freight Index · Monthly · 1990–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
Cass Freight Index — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Sep 2026
+1.9% YoY
Healthy reading
Aug 2026
+2.1% YoY
Healthy reading
Jul 2026
−4.8% YoY
Within normal range
Jun 2026
−4.1% YoY
Within normal range
May 2026
−1.2% YoY
Within normal range
Apr 2026
−4.4% YoY
Within normal range
Month-end readings of the same series as the chart. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Cass Freight?
The Cass Freight Index measures the volume of freight shipments across North America — encompassing truck, rail, air, and ocean freight. Because freight activity reflects actual goods being physically moved through the economy, it provides a real-world validation of economic activity that complements survey-based indicators like the ISM PMI. When factories are producing, retailers are restocking, and consumers are buying, freight volumes rise. When economic activity slows, freight volumes fall.
The year-over-year (YoY) change is the most useful comparison because it removes seasonal patterns that affect absolute freight volumes. The index is built from the freight invoices Cass processes for its shipper clients, so it reads actual shipments rather than a survey. The index is sometimes called the "X-ray of the economy" because it reflects what is actually happening in commerce rather than what survey respondents say is happening.
How We Color-Code the Cass Freight
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below −10.0%
Sharp freight decline — below −10%. Rare, 32 months since 1991, and 19 of them inside a recession
−10.0% – −5.0%
Declining freight — between −10% and −5%, about 1 month in 7 since 1991 (66 of 429), 9 of them inside a recession. A fall below −5% came before a recession within a year in 3 of 13 cases on the figures as first reported
−5.0% – 0.0%
Flat to slightly down — between −5% and 0%, about 1 month in 4 since 1991 (118 of 429)
0.0% – 5.0%
Growing freight — between 0% and 5%, about 1 month in 4 since 1991 (111 of 429)
5.0% or above
Strong freight growth — 5% or above, about 1 month in 4 since 1991 (102 of 429)
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
2020–2021COVID Shutdown and Boom
YoY: −23.6% (May 2020) then +35.3% (May 2021)
The shutdown took freight 23.6% below the year before in May 2020. The rebound a year later was the biggest year-over-year gain on the site's data, +35.3% in May 2021, measured against those shutdown months.
2023–2026Freight Recession
−10.6%
Freight ran below the year before for 42 straight months, from February 2023 to July 2026, the longest such period on the site's data (23 months in 2008–09). The low was −10.6% in August 2023, and no US recession was declared.
May 2021Supply Chain Boom
+35.3%
Record year-over-year growth, +35.3% in May 2021, measured against the shutdown months of 2020. Shipments themselves peaked at 1.27 on the index, under the 2006 (1.35) and 2018 (1.31) highs. From February 2023 freight then ran below the year before for 42 straight months.
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes the Cass Freight Index reliable?
Unlike surveys, which record what executives say is happening, the Cass Freight Index is built from the freight invoices Cass processes for its shipper clients. It counts actual shipments across truck, rail, air and ocean in North America.
Why is freight a good economic indicator?
Almost everything the economy produces needs to be physically moved at some point — raw materials to factories, finished goods to distribution centers, products to retailers, and packages to consumers. Freight activity therefore reflects the entire economic supply chain. When freight was up on the year, industrial production was up too in more than 9 months in 10 since 1991. Falls have said less. When freight was down on the year, output fell in only about 1 month in 2. The longest fall since 1991, 42 months from February 2023, came with no recession.
What happened in the 2023–2026 freight decline?
Freight ran below the year before for 42 straight months from February 2023, the longest period on the site's data, with a low of −10.6% in August 2023. The usual account is an inventory cycle: companies over-ordered during the pandemic and then worked the stock down. The site holds no inventory series, so that is the explanation, not a measured record. No US recession was declared over that period.
Is the freight index more useful than the ISM Manufacturing PMI?
They complement each other rather than compete. ISM records what purchasing managers report about orders and output; Cass Freight measures goods actually moved. When both point the same way, the reading is firmer. When they diverge, as during the pandemic supply-chain distortions, the reason for the divergence is the thing to understand.