Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors via FRED
Data through: Oct 16, 2026 · updated Oct 17 · Updates: Daily (market trading days)
WThe three bars show the last 3 weeks for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 71st percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: Expectations are anchored near the Fed's 2% target: the breakeven is between 1.8% and 2.5%. This is the series' usual state, about 7 days in 10 since 2003 (4,187 of 5,952).
10yr Breakeven Inflation Rate · Daily · 2003–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
10yr Breakeven Inflation Rate — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Oct 2026
2.35%
Very strong reading
Sep 2026
2.36%
Very strong reading
Aug 2026
2.31%
Very strong reading
Jul 2026
2.28%
Very strong reading
Jun 2026
2.24%
Very strong reading
May 2026
2.38%
Very strong reading
Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from breakeven_inflation_10y. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the 10yr Breakeven Inflation?
The 10-year breakeven inflation rate is the difference between the 10-year nominal Treasury yield and the 10-year TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) yield. It represents the market's expectation for average annual inflation over the next 10 years.
If the breakeven rate is 2.3%, the market expects inflation to average 2.3% annually for the next decade. The Federal Reserve targets 2% inflation. Readings far above or below 2% mean the market is pricing either an inflation overshoot or a risk of deflation.
How We Color-Code the 10yr Breakeven Inflation
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below 0.50%
Deflation priced in — only 33 days since 2003, all in the winter of 2008–09
0.50% – 1.00%
Well below target — 63 days since 2003, in 2008–09 and the spring of 2020
1.00% – 1.50%
Below target — about 1 day in 21 since 2003 (280 of 5,952), mostly 2009, 2015–16 and 2020
1.50% – 1.80%
Slightly below target — about 1 day in 7 since 2003 (824 of 5,952), most of them 2015–20
1.80% – 2.50%
Expectations anchored near the Fed's 2% target — the series' usual state, about 7 days in 10 since 2003 (4,187 of 5,952)
2.50% – 3.00%
Slightly above target — about 1 day in 11 since 2003 (564 of 5,952), mostly 2004–06 and 2021–22
3.00% – 3.50%
Above target — reached on a single day since 2003 (April 21, 2022, at 3.02%)
3.50% – 4.00%
Well above target — no day since 2003 has been here
Above 4.00%
Inflation crisis priced in — no day since 2003 has been here
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Mar 2020COVID deflation fear
0.50%
The market briefly priced ten-year inflation near zero. The Fed's balance sheet went from $4.2 trillion in early March to $7.2 trillion by June.
Apr 2022Post-COVID inflation peak
3.02%
The highest reading in the series, which starts in 2003. The fed funds rate went from 0.3% that month to 4.1% by December.
Aug 2010Post-GFC deflation scare
1.49%
The 2010 low, and the backdrop to the Fed's second round of bond buying that November. Its balance sheet grew from $2.3 trillion to $2.9 trillion by June 2011.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a TIPS bond?
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are US government bonds whose principal adjusts with CPI inflation. If inflation runs at 3%, the TIPS principal grows 3%. The yield on TIPS is therefore a "real" yield — the return above inflation. The gap between nominal Treasury yield and TIPS yield is the breakeven inflation rate.
Is 2% always the right target?
The Fed formally adopted 2% as its inflation target in 2012. Some economists argue for a higher target (3-4%) to give more room to cut rates before hitting zero. The 2% target was somewhat arbitrary but has become a global standard for developed-market central banks.
How does this differ from CPI?
CPI measures past inflation. The breakeven rate measures expected future inflation. CPI is backward-looking; the breakeven rate is forward-looking. Both matter — CPI tells you where you are, breakeven tells you where the market thinks you're going.
What does a sharp rise in 10-year breakeven inflation imply for Federal Reserve policy?
A rise in the 10-year breakeven means the bond market's expected inflation over the next decade has gone up, and with it the inflation the Fed is judged against. Breakevens are prices, so they move daily and ahead of the published inflation figures. On the site's data, the fed funds rate was higher a year later in about 3 of every 4 months since 2003 in which the breakeven closed above 2.5% (38 of 52). Above 3% the record holds a single day, April 21, 2022, at 3.02%, so it says nothing about that level.
How do 10-year breakeven inflation rates differ from 5-year breakevens, and which matters more?
The 5-year breakeven captures near-term expectations, which move with energy prices and supply shocks. The 10-year reflects longer-term expectations, which move with Fed credibility and fiscal policy. The 5-year/5-year forward breakeven — the market's expectation of inflation from years 5 through 10 — is a measure the Fed cites because it looks past the current cycle. The 10-year breakeven tracked here is the most quoted market measure and a useful anchor for whether inflation is seen as a temporary or persistent problem.