Source: Office of Financial Research (OFR Financial Stress Index)
Data through: Oct 14, 2026 · updated Oct 16 · Updates: Daily (business days)
WThe three bars show the last 3 weeks for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 34th percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: Below-average stress — the normal state of functioning markets, 57% of days since 2000. The credit and emerging-markets pillars on this site show where any stress is building.
OFR Financial Stress Index · Daily · 2000–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
OFR Financial Stress Index — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Oct 2026
−2.19
Healthy reading
Sep 2026
−2.35
Healthy reading
Aug 2026
−2.77
Healthy reading
Jul 2026
−2.57
Healthy reading
Jun 2026
−2.39
Healthy reading
May 2026
−2.98
Healthy reading
Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from ofr_fsi_aggregate. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the OFR Financial Stress?
The OFR Financial Stress Index (FSI) is a daily composite of financial stress produced by the Office of Financial Research, the US Treasury's post-Dodd-Frank research arm. It combines 33 market variables in five categories: credit spreads, equity valuation, safe-asset demand, funding conditions and volatility. They span the US, other advanced economies and emerging markets. Zero means average historical stress; positive readings mean stress is above average, negative readings mean markets are calmer than normal.
This is the headline series of the OFR FSI family tracked on this site: the Credit pillar (ofr_fsi_credit) and the Emerging Markets part (ofr_fsi_em) are its sub-components. The aggregate answers the summary question — how stressed is the global financial system today, all channels combined? — while the sub-indices locate the stress.
The index weights its variables by their changing correlation with the rest of the system, so it rises hardest when stress spreads across markets at once. Its peaks map the modern crises: 29.3 in October 2008, 10.3 in March 2020, 6.9 in the 2011 euro-area crisis and 2.4 for the 2023 bank failures. The calm extreme matters too: the all-time low of −5.33 came in February 2007, six months before the index first rose above 2.5. Deep calm describes conditions, not what follows.
How We Color-Code the OFR Financial Stress
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below −4.00
Exceptionally calm — far below the index's long-run average, reached on about 1 day in 17 since 2000 (388 of 6,780): mostly 2005–07, with shorter runs in 2014, 2018, around the turn of 2020 and January to early July 2021
−4.00 – 0.00
Below-average stress — the normal state of functioning markets, 57% of all days
0.00 – 2.50
Above-average stress — above zero, the index's own long-run average, but short of a significant episode: ordinary market turbulence
2.50 – 7.50
Significant stress — several channels stressed at once, as in the 2010, 2011–12, 2016 and 2022 episodes
Above 7.50
Systemic crisis — extreme stress across credit, funding, volatility and regions at once; days this high came almost all in 2008–09 and March 2020 (peaks 29.3 and 10.3), plus one day in October 2002
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Oct 10, 2008GFC Systemic Peak
+29.32
The all-time high, less than a month after Lehman Brothers failed. Every category was stressed at once, and the correlation weighting carried the index to nearly three times any other episode's peak (10.3 in 2020).
Mar 19, 2020COVID Dash-for-Cash
+10.27
From below zero on March 4 to this peak on March 19, 2020, about two weeks. The index was back below zero by June 3.
Oct 4, 2011Eurozone Sovereign Crisis
+6.93
The peak of the euro-area debt crisis, two months after the US credit-rating downgrade of August 2011. Stress stayed above 2.5 on 118 days between August 2011 and June 2012.
Feb 22, 2007Peak Pre-Crisis Complacency
−5.33
The all-time low, with the credit pillar in its easiest band and the VIX near 10. The index first rose above 2.5 six months later, in August 2007, and peaked in October 2008.
Mar 15, 2023SVB / Credit Suisse Episode
+2.43
The largest US bank failures since 2008 lifted the index to 2.43. That is above-average stress, short of the significant-stress band that begins at 2.5.
Jan 17, 2020Pre-COVID Calm
−4.24
The calmest reading of 2020, five weeks before the S&P 500's February 19 peak and the crash that followed. As in February 2007, deep calm described conditions, not what came next.
Frequently Asked Questions
What goes into the OFR FSI?
33 daily market variables in five categories. They are credit (corporate and sovereign spreads), equity valuation, safe assets (Treasury demand, gold), funding (money-market spreads, cross-currency basis) and volatility (implied volatility across asset classes). They cover the US, other advanced economies and emerging markets. Variables are weighted by their changing correlation with the rest of the system, so stress that spreads across markets counts for more than an isolated move. The method is OFR Working Paper 17-04.
How does the OFR FSI differ from the Chicago Fed NFCI or the VIX?
Scope and frequency. The VIX is one input class, US equity volatility. The NFCI is weekly, US-only, and includes slow-moving leverage and credit-quantity data. The OFR FSI is daily, global and built only from market prices, so it includes stress that starts abroad, such as the euro area in 2011 or China in 2015. Its weakness is the mirror image: it says nothing about quantities building beneath calm prices, as in February 2007.
Why is the index negative most of the time?
The index is normalized so zero equals average stress over its history, but that average is pulled up by crisis spikes (the 2008 crisis alone reached 29). Ordinary functioning markets sit modestly below it, so the median day reads about −1.2. This is why the colour bands put the calm/stress boundary at zero but keep the red bands for readings several points above it.
Should a very low (deeply negative) reading be reassuring?
Only about the present. The calmest readings in the series came before the two great crises: the all-time low of −5.33 in February 2007, about a year and a half before the 2008 peak, and −4.24 in January 2020, five weeks before the COVID crash. But none of the 15 month-ends below −4 since 2000 was followed by a 20% fall in the S&P 500 within a year. The index measures market pricing of stress today, not fragility building underneath.
How are this page's colour levels set?
Zero is the index's own long-run average stress — the OFR builds it that way — so it divides calmer-than-average markets from stressed ones. Below −4.00 is exceptional calm, as in 2005–07 and January 2020. From −4.00 to zero is below-average stress, the normal state of functioning markets. From zero to 2.50 is above-average stress, ordinary turbulence. Above 2.50 is significant stress with several channels stressed at once, the 2010, 2011–12, 2016 and 2022 class, and above 7.50 is a systemic crisis, the 2008–09 and March 2020 class. They are fixed levels, set in July 2026 with the series' whole history in view, and they do not move as new data arrives. A given reading gets the same colour in 2008 as today, so a change of colour is a change in financial stress, never in the yardstick.