Data through: September 2026 · updated Nov 4 · Updates: Monthly · Next: Dec 1
MThe three bars show the last 3 months for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 78th percentile historically — near historically high (favorable) levels.
What this means right now: More jobs than job seekers — between 1.0 and 1.5 openings per unemployed worker, as in 58 months since 2000, all of them since 2018 and none inside a recession. Workers have options: the unemployment rate in those months was typically 3.9%.
Jobs vs Job Seekers Ratio · Monthly · 2000–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
Jobs vs Job Seekers Ratio — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Sep 2026
1.06 jobs/seeker
Healthy reading
Aug 2026
1.02 jobs/seeker
Healthy reading
Jul 2026
1.06 jobs/seeker
Healthy reading
Jun 2026
1.01 jobs/seeker
Healthy reading
May 2026
1.03 jobs/seeker
Healthy reading
Apr 2026
1.03 jobs/seeker
Healthy reading
Month-end readings of the same series as the chart. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Jobs/Seekers?
The Jobs vs Job Seekers ratio divides the total number of job openings (from JOLTS) by the total number of unemployed workers (from the BLS). A ratio above 1.0 means there are more job openings than people looking for work — a tight labor market where workers have significant bargaining power. A ratio below 1.0 means there are more job seekers than openings — workers must compete for scarce positions.
The ratio peaked at 2.04 in March 2022 — two openings for every unemployed worker — the month the Fed began raising rates from near zero. By August 2023 the funds rate stood at 5.33% and the ratio at 1.47.
How We Color-Code the Jobs/Seekers
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below 0.40 jobs/seeker
Very loose — fewer than 0.4 openings per unemployed worker; about 1 month in 4 since 2000 (80 of 309), in 2002–03, 2008–13 and mid-2020
0.40 – 0.70 jobs/seeker
Loose — 0.4 to 0.7 openings per seeker; about 1 month in 3 since 2000 (100 of 309), between 2001 and 2021
0.70 – 1.00 jobs/seeker
Balanced — 0.7 to 1.0 openings per seeker; 50 months since 2000, including 10 of the 20 months since January 2025
1.00 – 1.50 jobs/seeker
Tight — 1.0 to 1.5 openings per seeker; 58 months since 2000, all since 2018, none inside a recession
Above 1.50 jobs/seeker
Very tight — more than 1.5 openings per seeker; only the 2021–2023 surge (21 months), peaking at 2.04 in March 2022
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Mar 2022Post-COVID Peak Tightness
2.04
The tightest labor market in the series, which begins in 2000. Average hourly earnings were rising 5.9% a year that month — the fastest in the site's data apart from the shutdown distortion of April 2020. The same month the Fed began raising rates from near zero; by August 2023 the funds rate was 5.33% and the ratio had fallen to 1.47.
Jul 2009Financial Crisis Weakness
0.15
The weakest labor market in the series through August 2026 — six and a half unemployed workers for every job opening, the month after the 2008–09 recession ended. Workers had little bargaining power: pay growth slowed to 1.6% a year at its low in 2012.
Pre-COVID 2019Pre-COVID Equilibrium
Ratio: 1.1 to 1.2
A slightly tight labor market, often called full employment — the ratio ran between 1.1 and 1.2 through 2019, with enough openings to absorb seekers and the unemployment rate between 3.5% and 4.0%.
Frequently Asked Questions
What has a "balanced" ratio looked like?
The site's data offers 2018–2019 as the reference, when the ratio ran between 1.0 and 1.24. In the fifteen months it sat between 1.0 and 1.2, the unemployment rate was 3.6% to 4.0% and average hourly earnings were growing 2.8% to 3.6% a year. The ratio has been between 1.0 and 1.2 in about 1 month in 9 since 2000 (36 of 309).
Can the ratio fall without unemployment rising significantly?
Yes. From March 2022 to September 2024 job openings fell from 12.3 million to 6.9 million, while the unemployment rate rose only from a low of 3.4% in April 2023 to 4.2% at its 2024 high. The ratio came down from 2.04 to between 1.0 and 1.4 in 2024 mostly through fewer openings, not more unemployed.
How does the ratio affect wage negotiation for individual workers?
The ratio sets the macro backdrop for individual wage negotiations. When the ratio is high (more openings than seekers), workers can credibly threaten to leave for another job, giving them leverage to negotiate higher pay. When the ratio is low (more seekers than openings), employers know alternatives are scarce and workers have less leverage.
What does a jobs-to-seekers ratio below 1.0 signal about recession risk?
When the ratio falls below 1.0, job seekers outnumber openings. What followed has varied: after the February 2018 crossing the unemployment rate was lower a year later, after March 2020 it was higher, and after the two 2025 crossings it moved little. The Sahm rule (tracked on this site) and this ratio have rarely moved together: of the four crossings below 1.0 since 2000, only March 2020's came with the Sahm rule firing. In 2001 and 2008 the rule fired with the ratio already below 1.0, and the 2025 crossings came with no Sahm signal at all.