Q4 2026 nowcast · as of Nov 4 · Updates: Read nightly; every nowcast the Atlanta Fed publishes is kept, and the cell shows the latest, dated by its own release (2-3 new nowcasts a week during active data periods)
Historical context: Currently in the 77th percentile historically — near historically high (favorable) levels.
What this means right now: GDPNow is tracking growth of 3% or more for the quarter under way. In the 19 quarters since 2011 whose final nowcast read this high, GDP came in at 3% or more in 12 and at 1% or more in 17.
GDPNow Nowcast (Current Quarter) — the last 8 quarters
Every quarter's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Quarter
Value
Band
Q4 2026
3.4%
Very strong reading
Q3 2026
3.3%
Very strong reading
Q2 2026
1.5%
Healthy reading
Q1 2026
1.2%
Healthy reading
Q4 2025
4.2%
Very strong reading
Q3 2025
3.5%
Very strong reading
Quarter-end readings of the same series as the chart. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the GDPNow?
GDPNow is the Atlanta Federal Reserve's running estimate of the current quarter's GDP growth rate. The official BEA report arrives 30 to 90 days after a quarter ends; GDPNow updates through the quarter as the data behind GDP arrive, so it is the earliest published reading of the quarter under way.
The model replicates the BEA's GDP methodology using the same underlying data components (consumer spending, business investment, government spending, net exports) as they are released through the quarter. Each time a relevant report is published — retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, the trade balance — the estimate updates. The Atlanta Fed describes it as a nowcast, not a forecast: a running calculation of what GDP would be if the quarter ended today.
How We Color-Code the GDPNow
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below −1.0%
Tracking a deep contraction — below −1%. Three final nowcasts since 2011 read here; GDP came in negative after 1 of them (Q2 2020)
−1.0% – 0.0%
Tracking a mild contraction — between −1% and 0%. One final nowcast since 2011 (Q1 2020), and GDP came in at −5.2%
0.0% – 1.0%
Tracking slow growth — between 0% and 1%. Since 2011, 8 final nowcasts read here; GDP came in below 1% after 3 of them
1.0% – 3.0%
Tracking steady growth — between 1% and 3%. Since 2011, 30 final nowcasts read here; GDP came in at 1% or above after 27 of them
3.0% or above
Tracking strong growth — 3% or more. Since 2011, 19 final nowcasts read here; GDP came in at 3% or more after 12 of them
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Q2 2020COVID Shutdown
−32.1%
The final nowcast, −32.1%, came in 4 points below the −28.0% GDP now shows for the quarter. It was the record's second-largest miss, in its deepest fall.
Q3 2020Reopening Surge
+37.0%
The final nowcast, +37.0%, overshot the +34.9% GDP now shows by 2 points, a larger miss than the typical quarter's 1.2.
Q1 2025Negative nowcast, positive quarter
−2.7%
The final nowcast read −2.7%, and after BEA's September 2026 revision GDP shows +0.1% for the quarter. The nowcast and the quarter have disagreed on the sign in 5 of the 61 quarters since 2011.
Frequently Asked Questions
How accurate is GDPNow compared to the official GDP release?
Against GDP as it now stands, the final nowcast has missed by a typical 1.2 points over the 60 quarters since 2011 (the median miss). It was within 1 point in 25 of them and within 2 points in 46. The comparison is with today's revised figures; the site holds no archive of the advance estimates the nowcast was aiming at. Early in a quarter, with little data in, the estimate moves more. The site keeps only each quarter's final nowcast, so it cannot measure the early error.
Why does GDPNow sometimes show negative GDP when the economy seems fine?
GDPNow can read negative when imports surge, because imports subtract from GDP. In the stored record the final nowcast was negative 4 times: Q1 and Q2 2020, Q2 2022 and Q1 2025. In the last two the quarter then came in positive, at +0.6% and +0.1%. The site keeps only each quarter's final reading, so the temporary dips this answer describes are not in its record.
How often does the Atlanta Fed update GDPNow?
GDPNow is updated after most of the major data releases that feed GDP, several times a month. The site keeps only each quarter's final reading, so it cannot count the updates. A quarter's estimate starts once the previous quarter's first GDP estimate is out, and runs until its own first estimate.
Is GDPNow the same as an economic forecast?
Not quite. The Atlanta Fed calls it a running estimate of the current quarter's growth, not an official forecast. Months not yet reported are filled in by the model's own estimates, with no judgment added, so the figure changes as each new report arrives.
What data inputs drive GDPNow the most?
Consumer spending data (retail sales, personal consumption) carry the most weight because consumption is the largest part of GDP — about two-thirds or more in the BEA's accounts. Business investment data (durable goods orders, construction spending) and the trade balance (imports/exports) are the next most important inputs. Government spending changes slowly and has less impact on quarter-to-quarter GDPNow movements.