Data through: October 2026 · updated Nov 6 · Updates: Monthly · Next: Dec 4
Historical context: Currently in the 88th percentile historically — near historically high (favorable) levels.
What this means right now: Factories are running long weeks — hours above 41.3, longer than in 77% of the months since 1939. Jobs have usually kept growing from here: goods-sector jobs were higher six months later in 177 of the 195 such months since 1948, about 9 in 10. For all months the figure is about 2 in 3 (607 of 940).
Mfg Average Weekly Hours · Monthly · 1939–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
Mfg Average Weekly Hours — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Oct 2026
41.8 hrs
Very strong reading
Sep 2026
41.9 hrs
Very strong reading
Aug 2026
41.8 hrs
Very strong reading
Jul 2026
41.8 hrs
Very strong reading
Jun 2026
41.7 hrs
Very strong reading
May 2026
41.6 hrs
Very strong reading
Month-end readings of the same series as the chart. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Mfg Weekly Hours?
Average Weekly Hours of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees, Manufacturing (FRED: AWHMAN) measures the average number of hours worked per week by production and nonsupervisory workers in US manufacturing. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes this monthly as part of the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey.
Factory hours are a classic early-warning indicator because employers change hours before they change headcount. When orders soften, they cut overtime and shifts before they cut jobs. Since 1948, hours have peaked before jobs did ahead of 12 of the 12 recessions — by 6 to 38 months. A single fall in hours is a weaker guide. Since 1961, hours have dropped 0.3 hour below the year's high 66 times; about two of every three of those drops (42) were followed by a month of job losses within a year (12 of them in the same report), and 24 were not. When demand picks up, employers lengthen hours before they commit to hiring.
AWHMAN is one of the ten components of the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI). The series has data going back to 1939, covering every US recession. Small moves matter here. The factory workweek barely moves: about 4 months in 5 since 1948 (772 of 946) fell between 40 and 42 hours, so a move of half an hour is large by the series' own history.
How We Color-Code the Mfg Weekly Hours
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below 39.0 hrs
Recession territory — all but 1 of the 13 months below 39 hours since 1941 fell inside a recession (the last was April 2020)
39.0 – 40.0 hrs
Below the long-run midpoint. This band has said little on its own: in the 125 such months since 1948, goods-sector jobs were higher six months later in 65 and lower in 60
40.0 – 40.7 hrs
Just below the long-run midpoint of 40.7 hours (the median from 1948 to September 2026). A band that has said little about direction: in the 305 such months since 1948, goods-sector jobs were higher six months later in 157 and lower in 148
40.7 – 41.3 hrs
Healthy — at or above the long-run midpoint (40.7 hrs); factories running normal schedules
Above 41.3 hrs
Strong — a longer workweek than in about 3 months out of four on record (above the 75th percentile); employers running extended hours, demand healthy
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Mar 2009GFC Recession Trough
39.3 hrs
Hours bottomed at 39.3 in March 2009, the low of the financial-crisis recession. Looking back, they had peaked in June 2007, six months before jobs did. As it happened, the warning came one report early: hours fell 0.3 below the year's high in the report of January 4, 2008, and the first month of job losses was reported on February 1.
Apr 19661960s Manufacturing Peak
41.8 hrs
The Vietnam War-era factory boom stretched workweeks to the 1960s high. The all-time record is 45.7 hours (November 1943, in a record that begins in 1939); the post-war high came much later, 42.4 hours in April 2018.
Apr 2020COVID Shutdown
38.4 hrs
Hours dropped sharply in April 2020 as factory shutdowns spread. The recovery was unusually fast as demand for goods surged — hours were back above 40.5 by late 2020.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does AWHMAN lead payrolls?
Hiring and firing is expensive — job postings, training, severance, unemployment claims. Changing hours costs almost nothing. So when orders soften, a manufacturer first cuts overtime (say from 42 hours to 40), then regular hours (40 to 38), and only then lays people off. The record is less tidy than the logic. Since 1961, hours have dropped 0.3 hour below the year's high 66 times. About two of every three drops (42) were followed by a month of job losses within a year — 12 in the same report, another 12 within three months — and 24 by no loss at all. Where hours have given a real early warning is at their peaks: ahead of 12 of the 12 recessions since 1948, hours peaked 6 to 38 months before jobs did.
Why are the threshold bands so narrow?
Because the factory workweek barely moves. Hours above 45 came only in 1943–45 (23 months), and no month has ever been below 37. Almost everything that matters happens between 39-42 hours. A move of 0.5 hour is roughly a 1.25% change in hours worked — a real shift in output across US manufacturing. The tight bands keep small but real moves visible.
Is AWHMAN part of the Leading Economic Index?
Yes — average weekly manufacturing hours has been a component of the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI) for decades, specifically because of its documented tendency to lead broader economic turning points.
Is there a long-run downtrend in manufacturing hours?
No. Decade averages have stayed between 40.1 hours (the 1970s) and 41.7 (the 2010s), and the post-war high of 42.4 hours came as recently as April 2018. The bands are set on the full record since 1939. In the middle of the range the level alone says little: hours between 39 and 40 were followed by more goods-sector jobs about as often as fewer. Below 39, though, all but 1 of the 13 months since 1941 have been inside a recession. The real warning has been the turn, not the level: hours peaked before jobs did ahead of 12 of the 12 recessions since 1948.