Data through: August 2026 · updated Sep 4 · Updates: Monthly
Historical context: Currently in the 86th percentile historically — near historically high (favorable) levels.
What this means right now: Manufacturing hours are above the p75 threshold — employers are running extended schedules, signaling strong demand. This level historically precedes solid payroll growth in manufacturing.
Mfg Average Weekly Hours · Monthly · 1939–2026
Grey areas = NBER recessions · Scroll to read · zoom and pan in Expand
Monthly values
Mfg Average Weekly Hours — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Aug 2026
41.7 hrs
Very strong reading
Jul 2026
41.7 hrs
Very strong reading
Jun 2026
41.7 hrs
Very strong reading
May 2026
41.6 hrs
Very strong reading
Apr 2026
41.6 hrs
Very strong reading
Mar 2026
41.5 hrs
Very strong reading
Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from awhman. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Mfg Weekly Hours?
Average Weekly Hours of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees, Manufacturing (FRED: AWHMAN) measures the average number of hours worked per week by production and nonsupervisory workers in US manufacturing. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes this monthly as part of the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey.
Manufacturing hours is a classic leading economic indicator because employers adjust hours before they adjust headcount. When demand softens, the first response is to reduce overtime or cut shifts — hours per worker fall before any layoffs appear in payroll data. Conversely, when demand picks up, employers extend hours before making the commitment to hire new workers. This makes AWHMAN one of the earliest signals of a manufacturing cycle turn.
AWHMAN is one of the ten components of the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI). The series has data going back to 1939, covering every US recession. Small moves matter here — the normal operating range is narrow (roughly 40–42 hours), so a 0.5-hour decline is a meaningful signal.
How We Color-Code the Mfg Weekly Hours
Our heatmap colors each indicator based on historically significant thresholds:
Recession-range — consistent with severe manufacturing contraction; historically precedes broad payroll decline
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
2009-06-01GFC Recession Trough
39.6 hrs
Hours collapsed during the deepest post-war recession as manufacturing demand evaporated. The decline in hours led the broader employment collapse by several months, consistent with its role as a leading indicator.
1966-10-01Post-War Manufacturing Peak
41.3 hrs
Vietnam War-era manufacturing boom drove extended workweeks. The series has trended gradually lower over decades as manufacturing mix shifted toward lighter industries.
2020-04-01COVID Shutdown
38.4 hrs
Hours dropped sharply in April 2020 as factory shutdowns spread. The recovery was unusually rapid as demand for goods surged — hours rebounded to above 40.5 by late 2020.
Investor Checklist — Current Reading
Based on the current Mfg Weekly Hours reading of 41.7 hrs (Very Positive):
✓Strong hours support goods-producing sector earnings — favor industrial cyclicals
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does AWHMAN lead payrolls?
Hiring and firing workers involves significant costs — job postings, onboarding, severance, and UI claims. Adjusting hours is nearly costless. When orders soften, a manufacturer will first cut overtime (reducing hours from say 42 to 40), then normal hours (40 to 38), and only then begin layoffs. This means the hours series typically declines 1-3 months before payrolls turn negative, making it a reliable early warning system.
Why are the threshold bands so narrow?
Manufacturing hours have a narrow natural operating range — extreme readings above 45 or below 37 are very rare. Most of the economic signal lives within the 39-42 hour band. A 0.5-hour move represents roughly a 1.25% change in hours worked, which translates to meaningful output variation across the US manufacturing sector. The tight bands ensure small but real economic signals are not missed.
Is AWHMAN part of the Leading Economic Index?
Yes — average weekly manufacturing hours has been a component of the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI) for decades, specifically because of its documented tendency to lead broader economic turning points. It is one of the most robust components of the LEI.
Does the long-run downtrend matter for interpreting this indicator?
There is a very gradual multi-decade downtrend in manufacturing hours as the industry mix shifts and productivity improves. The absolute level bands here are calibrated to the full history (1939–present), so they incorporate this trend. For this reason, the current reading should be compared to recent years rather than the absolute post-war peaks. The key signal is direction and deviation from the recent norm, not the absolute level vs. 1960s peaks.