UMich Consumer Sentiment

Negative
CURRENT VALUE
55.2
Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers via FRED
Data through: July 2026 · updated Aug 29 · Updates: Monthly (preliminary mid-month, final end of month)
The three bars show the last 3 months (end-of-month values) for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
↑ 11.5% MoM↓ 10.5% YoY
Historical context: Currently in the 2th percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: Consumer sentiment is low — consumers are worried about their finances and the economy. Spending on discretionary items is likely declining. If this persists, GDP growth will slow as consumer caution constrains the 70% of the economy driven by household spending.
UMich Consumer Sentiment · Monthly · 1952–2026
Grey areas = NBER recessions · Scroll to read · zoom and pan in Expand
Monthly values

UMich Consumer Sentiment — the last 12 months

Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.

MonthValueBand
Jul 202655.2Concerning reading
Jun 202649.5Severe/critical reading
May 202644.8Severe/critical reading
Apr 202649.8Severe/critical reading
Mar 202653.3Concerning reading
Feb 202656.6Concerning reading

Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from umich_consumer_sentiment. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.

What is the UMich Sentiment?

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) measures how optimistic or pessimistic American consumers feel about their personal finances and the overall economy. It is one of the oldest and most respected consumer confidence measures, conducted monthly since 1952. The survey asks consumers about their current financial situation, their expectations for the future, and their views on buying conditions for major purchases.

Consumer sentiment matters because consumer spending drives approximately 70% of US GDP. When consumers feel confident, they spend freely — on cars, homes, vacations, and discretionary items. When they feel pessimistic, they cut spending, save more, and defer major purchases. The MCSI has a strong track record of predicting future consumer spending trends, making it one of the most watched economic indicators for retailers, economists, and investors.

How We Color-Code the UMich Sentiment

Our heatmap colors each indicator based on historically significant thresholds:

Above 90
High confidence — consumers spending freely, strong economic tailwind
75 – 90
Solid confidence — healthy consumer spending environment
65 – 75
Moderate confidence — consumers cautious but not alarmed
55 – 65
Low confidence — consumer spending likely slowing
Below 55
Very low confidence — recession-level consumer pessimism

Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?

When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:

Jun 2022Inflation Shock Bottom
50.0
The lowest consumer sentiment reading in the survey's 70-year history — driven by 9% inflation eroding purchasing power. The S&P 500 bottomed 4 months later in October 2022.
Jan 2000Dot-Com Euphoria Peak
112.0
Record consumer confidence near the dot-com market peak — the combination of stock market wealth effect and strong employment created unprecedented optimism that proved unsustainable.
Nov 2008Financial Crisis Bottom
55.3
Consumer confidence collapsed during the financial crisis — the spending freeze contributed to the severity of the recession. Recovered gradually as banks stabilized.

Investor Checklist — Current Reading

Based on the current UMich Sentiment reading of 55.2 (Negative):

Low confidence — consumer spending likely slowing, headwind for retail and discretionary
Reduce consumer discretionary exposure, increase staples and defensive allocation
Low confidence can be a contrarian indicator — sustained lows often mark economic bottoms

Frequently Asked Questions

How does the University of Michigan conduct this survey?
The University of Michigan conducts approximately 500 telephone interviews with a nationally representative sample of US households each month. Respondents are asked five core questions about their current financial situation versus a year ago, their expectations for the next year, their five-year economic outlook, and their views on buying conditions for large household durable goods and homes. The index is scaled to a 1966 baseline of 100.
What is the difference between Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Confidence (Conference Board)?
Both measure consumer attitudes but with different emphases. The UMich survey focuses more on personal financial conditions and is seen as more forward-looking and stock-market-sensitive. The Conference Board survey focuses more on labor market conditions (jobs available vs. hard to get). Both are widely watched; divergences between them can reveal interesting economic dynamics.
Why did consumer sentiment hit a 70-year low in June 2022?
The June 2022 reading of 50.0 was the lowest in the survey's history because of the simultaneous impact of 9.1% inflation (eroding purchasing power), gas prices above $5/gallon (a highly visible daily expense), and stock market declines (reducing wealth for many households). The combination of all three hitting simultaneously was historically unprecedented.
Is low consumer sentiment a good contrarian stock market indicator?
It can be — historically, extreme lows in consumer sentiment have often marked or been near important market bottoms. The June 2022 historic low came four months before the October 2022 S&P 500 bottom; the November 2008 low was near the early 2009 bottom. The logic is that when consumers are maximally pessimistic, much of the bad news is already priced into markets.
How quickly does consumer sentiment change?
Consumer sentiment can shift rapidly in response to news — particularly inflation data, employment reports, gas prices, and stock market moves. The index can move 5-10 points in a single month during major economic events. Sustained trends (3+ months in one direction) are more economically significant than single-month readings.