Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers via FRED
Data through: July 2026 · updated Aug 29 · Updates: Monthly (preliminary mid-month, final end of month)
MThe three bars show the last 3 months (end-of-month values) for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
↑ 11.5% MoM↓ 10.5% YoY
Historical context: Currently in the 2th percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: Consumer sentiment is low — consumers are worried about their finances and the economy. Spending on discretionary items is likely declining. If this persists, GDP growth will slow as consumer caution constrains the 70% of the economy driven by household spending.
UMich Consumer Sentiment · Monthly · 1952–2026
Grey areas = NBER recessions · Scroll to read · zoom and pan in Expand
Monthly values
UMich Consumer Sentiment — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Jul 2026
55.2
Concerning reading
Jun 2026
49.5
Severe/critical reading
May 2026
44.8
Severe/critical reading
Apr 2026
49.8
Severe/critical reading
Mar 2026
53.3
Concerning reading
Feb 2026
56.6
Concerning reading
Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from umich_consumer_sentiment. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the UMich Sentiment?
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) measures how optimistic or pessimistic American consumers feel about their personal finances and the overall economy. It is one of the oldest and most respected consumer confidence measures, conducted monthly since 1952. The survey asks consumers about their current financial situation, their expectations for the future, and their views on buying conditions for major purchases.
Consumer sentiment matters because consumer spending drives approximately 70% of US GDP. When consumers feel confident, they spend freely — on cars, homes, vacations, and discretionary items. When they feel pessimistic, they cut spending, save more, and defer major purchases. The MCSI has a strong track record of predicting future consumer spending trends, making it one of the most watched economic indicators for retailers, economists, and investors.
How We Color-Code the UMich Sentiment
Our heatmap colors each indicator based on historically significant thresholds:
Above 90
High confidence — consumers spending freely, strong economic tailwind
Moderate confidence — consumers cautious but not alarmed
55 – 65
Low confidence — consumer spending likely slowing
Below 55
Very low confidence — recession-level consumer pessimism
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Jun 2022Inflation Shock Bottom
50.0
The lowest consumer sentiment reading in the survey's 70-year history — driven by 9% inflation eroding purchasing power. The S&P 500 bottomed 4 months later in October 2022.
Jan 2000Dot-Com Euphoria Peak
112.0
Record consumer confidence near the dot-com market peak — the combination of stock market wealth effect and strong employment created unprecedented optimism that proved unsustainable.
Nov 2008Financial Crisis Bottom
55.3
Consumer confidence collapsed during the financial crisis — the spending freeze contributed to the severity of the recession. Recovered gradually as banks stabilized.
Investor Checklist — Current Reading
Based on the current UMich Sentiment reading of 55.2 (Negative):
⚠Low confidence — consumer spending likely slowing, headwind for retail and discretionary
✓Reduce consumer discretionary exposure, increase staples and defensive allocation
ℹLow confidence can be a contrarian indicator — sustained lows often mark economic bottoms
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the University of Michigan conduct this survey?
The University of Michigan conducts approximately 500 telephone interviews with a nationally representative sample of US households each month. Respondents are asked five core questions about their current financial situation versus a year ago, their expectations for the next year, their five-year economic outlook, and their views on buying conditions for large household durable goods and homes. The index is scaled to a 1966 baseline of 100.
What is the difference between Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Confidence (Conference Board)?
Both measure consumer attitudes but with different emphases. The UMich survey focuses more on personal financial conditions and is seen as more forward-looking and stock-market-sensitive. The Conference Board survey focuses more on labor market conditions (jobs available vs. hard to get). Both are widely watched; divergences between them can reveal interesting economic dynamics.
Why did consumer sentiment hit a 70-year low in June 2022?
The June 2022 reading of 50.0 was the lowest in the survey's history because of the simultaneous impact of 9.1% inflation (eroding purchasing power), gas prices above $5/gallon (a highly visible daily expense), and stock market declines (reducing wealth for many households). The combination of all three hitting simultaneously was historically unprecedented.
Is low consumer sentiment a good contrarian stock market indicator?
It can be — historically, extreme lows in consumer sentiment have often marked or been near important market bottoms. The June 2022 historic low came four months before the October 2022 S&P 500 bottom; the November 2008 low was near the early 2009 bottom. The logic is that when consumers are maximally pessimistic, much of the bad news is already priced into markets.
How quickly does consumer sentiment change?
Consumer sentiment can shift rapidly in response to news — particularly inflation data, employment reports, gas prices, and stock market moves. The index can move 5-10 points in a single month during major economic events. Sustained trends (3+ months in one direction) are more economically significant than single-month readings.
Trending Questions
AI context · refreshed August 30, 2026
What investors are searching about this indicator right now, answered using current news and data.
1What happened to consumer sentiment in August 2026?
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index was revised higher to 51.7 in August 2026, from a preliminary reading of 51.0. Despite the upward revision, sentiment fell about 6% from July and remained roughly 11% below its year-ago level, reflecting persistent concerns that inflation will remain elevated for the foreseeable future.
2Why did consumer sentiment decline in August?
Households continue to face pressure from elevated costs as the conflict in the Middle East drags on, with national average gasoline prices held above $4 a gallon across August, and broader inflation has eroded incomes. Consumers are increasingly worried that prospects elsewhere in the economy could be weakening.
3What are consumers expecting for inflation ahead?
Consumers expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 4% over the next year, the lowest reading since March but still a historically elevated level. Long-run expectations held steady at 3.3% for a third consecutive month.
4How did business conditions expectations change?
Consumers are increasingly concerned about weakening economic conditions, with one-year business expectations falling 10% and the five-year outlook dropping 13%.
5Which consumer groups experienced the largest sentiment declines?
Sentiment declined across all political groups, particularly among Republicans, while older, lower- and middle-income consumers and those without stock holdings saw sharper deterioration. Sentiment among Republicans slumped to the lowest since November 2024.