Data through: September 2026 · updated Oct 24 · Updates: Monthly · Next: Nov 20
MThe three bars show the last 3 months for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
↓ 7.0% MoM↓ 12.7% YoY
Historical context: Currently in the 0th percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: Americans are gloomier than at any time in the survey's history — sentiment is below 50. Readings below 50 have come only in 2026, with the all-time low of 44.8 in May 2026, and no recession has come so far. The previous floor was June 2022's 50.0, set by a 9% burst of inflation. Deep gloom has come near stock-market lows before. The survey's lows of 1980, 2008, 2011 and 2022 each came within four months of a low in stocks, and the S&P 500 was higher a year after each.
UMich Consumer Sentiment · Monthly · 1952–2026
NBER recessions
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What is the UMich Sentiment?
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) measures how optimistic or pessimistic Americans feel about their own finances and the economy as a whole. It is one of the oldest and most respected measures of consumer confidence, run since 1952, and monthly since 1978. The survey asks people about their finances now, what they expect for the future, and whether it is a good time to make major purchases.
Consumer sentiment matters because consumer spending makes up approximately 70% of US GDP. When people feel confident, they spend freely — on cars, homes, holidays and extras. When they feel gloomy, they cut back, save more and put off big purchases. In the site's data, though, how people feel and what they spend are only loosely linked. Since 1992 the index's correlation with real retail sales growth has been a weak 0.31 in the same month, and 0.20 six months ahead. The index is best read as a measure of how households feel, not of what they buy.
How We Color-Code the UMich Sentiment
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below 50.0
Very low confidence — reached only in 2026, with the all-time low of 44.8 in May 2026; no recession so far
50.0 – 60.0
Low confidence — the mood of 1974–75, 1980, 2008–09, 2011, 2022–23 and 2025–26; about a third of those months came during a recession
60.0 – 75.0
Moderate confidence — cautious but not alarmed; about a fifth of months since 1952
75.0 – 90.0
Solid confidence — a little more than a quarter of months since 1952 (28%)
90.0 or above
High confidence — the survey's most common state, about 5 in 10 of months since 1952 (45%); last seen in February 2020
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Jun 2022Inflation Shock Bottom
50.0
The lowest reading since the survey began in 1952, until 2026. April–June 2026 read 49.8, 44.8 and 49.5, so June 2022 now ranks fifth-lowest of 677 readings. Inflation of 9% was eating into paychecks. The S&P 500 hit its low 4 months later, in October 2022.
Jan 2000Dot-Com Euphoria Peak
112.0
The highest reading in the survey's history, weeks before the dot-com market peak. Rising stock wealth and plentiful jobs had made Americans more optimistic than ever before or since.
Nov 2008Financial Crisis Bottom
55.3
Confidence collapsed in the financial crisis, and households stopped spending, which deepened the recession. It recovered slowly as the banks were stabilized.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the University of Michigan conduct this survey?
The University of Michigan interviews approximately 500 households each month, chosen to represent the country. People are asked five core questions: how their finances compare with a year ago, and what they expect for the next year. They are also asked how they see the economy over five years, and whether conditions are good or bad for buying big household items and homes. The index is scaled so that 1966 equals 100.
What is the difference between Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Confidence (Conference Board)?
Both measure how consumers feel, with different emphases. The Michigan survey asks more about personal finances, and tends to react to the stock market and to what people expect. The Conference Board survey asks more about jobs — whether they are plentiful or hard to get. Both are widely watched; when they disagree, it usually says something about jobs versus prices.
Why did consumer sentiment hit a record low in June 2022?
Because prices were rising faster than paychecks. The June 2022 reading of 50.0 was the lowest since the survey began in 1952, a record that stood until April–June 2026 (49.8, 44.8 and 49.5). Inflation was running at 9.1% a year. Stocks were down too: the S&P 500 sat 21% below its January peak.
Is low consumer sentiment a good contrarian stock market indicator?
So far, yes — but on few cases. The survey's lows of May 1980, November 2008, August 2011 and June 2022 each came within four months of a stock-market low. The S&P 500 was higher a year after each. Those cases are few, and the 2026 low is too recent to judge. The idea is that when people are at their gloomiest, much of the bad news is already in prices.
How quickly does consumer sentiment change?
Quickly. Sentiment reacts to the news — inflation figures, jobs reports, gas prices and stock-market moves. In a major event the index can move 5-10 points in a single month. A period of 3+ months in one direction says more than any single reading.