Data through: September 2026 · updated Oct 2 · Updates: Monthly · Next: Nov 6
MThe three bars show the last 3 months for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 48th percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: Goods hiring is flat to modest — 0K to 25K a month. That has happened in 133 months since 1950, 2 of them inside a recession. After 12 months, unemployment was lower in 91 of those months and higher in 31.
Goods-Producing Payrolls · Monthly · 1939–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
Goods-Producing Payrolls — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Sep 2026
+18K
Within normal range
Aug 2026
+34K
Healthy reading
Jul 2026
+35K
Healthy reading
Jun 2026
+14K
Within normal range
May 2026
+3K
Within normal range
Apr 2026
+6K
Within normal range
Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from goods_payrolls_mom. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Goods Payrolls?
Goods-producing payrolls (FRED: USGOOD) count the jobs in manufacturing, construction and mining and logging — the side of the economy that makes physical things. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes it monthly in its survey of employers.
These are the jobs that swing most with the economy. Goods employment had been falling for six months going into eight of the eleven recessions since 1950, and was still rising into three (1960, 1973 and 1981). On its own it is not a recession call: in 2015-16 goods jobs still rose 316K over two years, with only five months of losses, and no recession came. The site reads it alongside services payrolls, the larger and steadier block. In the site's Momentum composite it carries a deliberately small 7% weight (DR-41), because it moves so closely with industrial production (a correlation of 0.83 on 12-month changes since 1950).
The heatmap cell shows the monthly change in thousands of jobs. Note the scale: goods payrolls are 21.6M against services’ 114.1M in Sep 2026, so its monthly moves are a fraction of the size.
How We Color-Code the Goods Payrolls
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below −25K
Sharp fall in goods jobs — 268 months since 1950, 107 of them inside a recession; the question is whether services payrolls are following
−25K – 0K
Goods shedding jobs, mildly — 101 months since 1950, only 3 of them inside a recession; not by itself a recession call
0K – 25K
Flat to modest growth — normal for a long-running expansion
25K – 50K
Solid growth in goods jobs
Above 50K
Goods boom — construction and manufacturing hiring together
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Apr 2020COVID Shutdown
−2,380K
Goods jobs fell from 20.9M to 18.5M in a single month — 2.38 million jobs gone. It took until May 2022 to get back to the February 2020 level.
May 2016Goods Slowdown (No Recession)
−46K
The worst of five losing months in 2015-16. Even so, goods jobs rose 316K over those two years and services hiring never slowed. No recession followed.
Jul 1979Pre-Volcker Goods Peak
25.2M (all-time high)
Goods employment peaked at 25.2 million in July 1979 and has never been back. The closest it has come since 1979 was January 1980 (24.9 million); Sep 2026 stands at 21.6M. The economy's jobs have shifted toward services, which is why the site reads the cycle through services payrolls too.
Frequently Asked Questions
Goods payrolls are falling — is a recession coming?
Not necessarily. Goods jobs were falling going into eight of the eleven recessions since 1950, but rising into the other three (1960, 1973 and 1981). And they have fallen with no recession at all: in 2015-16 there were five losing months, yet goods jobs rose 316K over the two years while services kept hiring. Weak goods hiring usually comes before a recession, but it neither guarantees one nor is needed for one. The site reads it together with services payrolls, factory hours and jobless claims.