Source: FRED: DSERRA3M086SBEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis)
Data through: August 2026 · updated Sep 30 · Updates: Monthly · Next: Oct 29
MThe three bars show the last 3 months for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 33rd percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: Services demand is growing at its usual pace — between 2% and 3.5% above the year before, around the long-run median; 296 of 800 months since 1960 read here.
Real PCE: Services · Monthly · 1959–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
Real PCE: Services — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Aug 2026
+2.5% YoY
Healthy reading
Jul 2026
+2.5% YoY
Healthy reading
Jun 2026
+2.7% YoY
Healthy reading
May 2026
+2.7% YoY
Healthy reading
Apr 2026
+2.4% YoY
Healthy reading
Mar 2026
+2.1% YoY
Healthy reading
Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from real_pce_services_yoy_12m. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Real PCE Services?
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures: Services (FRED: DSERRA3M086SBEA, chain-type quantity index) measures inflation-adjusted household spending on services. That covers housing and utilities, healthcare, transportation, recreation, food services, financial services and more. The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes it monthly with the Personal Income and Outlays report.
Services are about two-thirds of total consumption, and this series is the volume measure: it strips out price changes to show real quantity demanded. Where the payrolls and hours series measure the service economy’s labor SUPPLY response, this measures the DEMAND that drives it — one of the three services series in the site's Momentum composite.
Real services consumption is remarkably stable: it grew through most recessions, falling only in 2008–09 and, far more deeply, in 2020. When households have cut real services spending, the downturn was severe: 6 of the 23 falling months since 1960 fell inside a recession and 17 in the slow recoveries after, all within a year of its end.
How We Color-Code the Real PCE Services
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below −0.5%
Contracting real services demand — seen only in 2009 and 2020-21
−0.5% – 1.0%
Near-zero real services growth — 1980-82, 1991, 2001, 2008-09 and 2010-13
1.0% – 2.0%
Below-trend growth — between 1% and 2%, about 1 month in 7 since 1960 (117 of 800), 29 of them inside a recession
2.0% – 3.5%
Healthy real services demand around the long-run trend (median 3.1% since 1960, 2.5% since 1990)
Above 3.5%
Services demand booming — above the long-run ~3% trend (2.5% since 1990)
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Apr 2020COVID Shutdown
−16.3%
The only demand collapse in the series: spending fell 18% from February to April 2020 as in-person services became unavailable overnight. It took until June 2021, about a year and a half, to regain the February 2020 level.
May 2009GFC Recession
−0.9%
The only real services contraction in the record before 2020, bottoming at −0.9% in May 2009. The 2001 recession, by contrast, saw services spending keep growing throughout; its slowest month was +0.6%.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does services spending matter more than goods spending for recession-watching?
Goods purchases can be put off, so goods spending swings with sentiment. Services are habitual and contractual (rent, healthcare, insurance, subscriptions), and households cut them only under real financial stress. When real services spending has fallen below its level a year earlier, a recession was under way or had just ended. About a quarter of those months since 1960 fell inside a recession (6 of 23), and the rest in the recoveries after.
How current is this data?
The BEA publishes it with the Personal Income and Outlays report roughly four weeks after each month ends, the same release as Core PCE inflation. It is also revised more than labor data. On this site's archive since 2014, a month's year-over-year change has moved 0.6 points on average between its first print and today, against 0.2 points for payrolls. That is why the Momentum composite pairs it with the timelier, less-revised payroll and hours counts.