Today’s live states, matched against every settled month since Aug 1981 that read the same — computed only from what was knowable at the time on the history side. Matched exactly, listed in full. We present the record; we do not assert predictive skill.
The four states below define "a month like today." Every month since Aug 1981 that read the same on all four is listed in the register.
today's states: live · analog months: settled month record through 2026-08
Today's other readings — live, and not used to select the months below. They appear on each register row (as of their own record months) so you can compare then with now:
both stretched margins +1.41σ · CAPE +1.60σ
66 of 278 quarters since 1957Q1 read like today, across 14 spells; the current spell is 3 quarters old (since 2025Q4).
| state | quarters | spells | +1y median | +3y median | worst +3y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| both stretched ← today | 66 | 14 | +13.5% (N=63) | +35.1% (N=61) | -37.6% |
| one stretched | 94 | 24 | +12.5% (N=93) | +35.7% (N=87) | -38.7% |
| neither | 66 | 21 | +14.9% (N=66) | +38.8% (N=66) | -25.1% |
| either compressed | 52 | 8 | +18.4% (N=52) | +50.7% (N=52) | -24.5% |
S&P total return · Shiller monthly convention · quarterly join — CAPE at each quarter's end month · the shared house ladder, deep + pale folded · counts, never probabilities · this card describes — the analog matcher does not consume it · margins AS OF 2026Q2 · CAPE AS OF 2026-06
Shaded spans are the months matching today on all four dimensions; the open run is the brighter shade. Log scale.
The table is complete; nothing is chosen for you.
| episode | then — entry-month readings | what followed — S&P total return | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| span | months | spell | bft/HEA | MR | FS·M·IR | M/IR traj | EB then | CPS then | during | worst aft. | +1y | +3y | +5y | became |
| 2026-04 → nowopen | 5 | 2 | expensive / expensive | 3 of 8 | 55 · 55 · 19 | stable / deteriorating | +54.2% | +1.41σ | +11.7% | — | — | — | — | same spell |
| 2025-08 → 2025-12 | 5 | 2 | expensive / expensive | 3 of 8 | 47 · 42 · 22 | deteriorating / deteriorating | +33.3% | +0.95σ | +7.3% | — | — | — | — | Disinflation |
| 2025-05 → 2025-05 | 1 | 1 | expensive / expensive | 4 of 8 | 44 · 64 · 37 | stable / stable | +8.3% | +0.83σ | — | — | +29.1% | — | — | Transitional |
| 2025-02 → 2025-02 | 1 | 3 | expensive / expensive | 5 of 8 | 45 · 60 · 33 | stable / improving | -12.5% | +0.92σ | — | — | +15.6% | — | — | same spell |
| 2024-11 → 2024-11 | 1 | 2 | expensive / expensive | 4 of 8 | 42 · 51 · 27 | stable / deteriorating | +25.0% | +1.02σ | — | — | +15.1% | — | — | Overheating |
| 2024-02 → 2024-07 | 6 | 7 | expensive / expensive | 3 of 8 | 40 · 59 · 30 | improving / stable | +16.7% | +0.86σ | +11.2% | — | +15.1% | — | — | Transitional |
| 2023-07 → 2023-07 | 1 | 6 | expensive / expensive | 1 of 8 | 34 · 58 · 18 | stable / stable | +12.5% | +1.05σ | — | -5.1% | +24.8% | +73.3% | — | Disinflation |
| 2021-12 → 2021-12 | 1 | 8 | expensive / expensive | 1 of 8 | 68 · 84 · 4 | stable / deteriorating | +58.3% | +1.22σ | — | -19.3% | -15.0% | +34.5% | — | same spell |
| 2021-07 → 2021-10 | 4 | 3 | expensive / expensive | 1 of 8 | 69 · 73 · 25 | deteriorating / deteriorating | +25.0% | +1.42σ | +2.6% | -15.2% | -15.2% | +35.9% | — | same spell |
| 2020-01 → 2020-01 | 1 | 1 | expensive / neither | 4 of 8 | 50 · 55 · 53 | stable / stable | +4.2% | +0.43σ | — | -18.8% | +17.9% | +26.8% | +97.0% | same spell |
| 2019-04 → 2019-04 | 1 | 1 | expensive / expensive | 2 of 8 | 49 · 56 · 46 | stable / deteriorating | +29.2% | +1.07σ | — | -7.0% | -3.0% | +58.9% | +90.4% | same spell |
| 2018-08 → 2018-09 | 2 | 26 | expensive / expensive | 2 of 8 | 62 · 69 · 81 | stable / stable | +25.0% | +1.07σ | +1.7% | -11.1% | +4.8% | +61.6% | +65.4% | same spell |
| 2018-03 → 2018-05 | 3 | 21 | expensive / expensive | 1 of 8 | 65 · 61 · 62 | deteriorating / deteriorating | +62.5% | +1.12σ | +0.3% | -3.9% | +7.7% | +63.0% | +67.2% | same spell |
| 2018-01 → 2018-01 | 1 | 19 | expensive / expensive | 2 of 8 | 66 · 68 · 71 | stable / improving | +33.3% | +1.12σ | — | -6.4% | -4.7% | +43.9% | +54.7% | same spell |
| 2017-10 → 2017-10 | 1 | 16 | expensive / expensive | 1 of 8 | 63 · 59 · 56 | stable / deteriorating | +50.0% | +1.09σ | — | +1.6% | +11.0% | +41.5% | +58.9% | same spell |
| 2017-07 → 2017-08 | 2 | 13 | expensive / expensive | 3 of 8 | 60 · 59 · 63 | stable / stable | +33.3% | +1.06σ | +0.2% | +1.7% | +18.5% | +46.2% | +84.6% | same spell |
| 2017-02 → 2017-05 | 4 | 8 | expensive / expensive | 1 of 8 | 58 · 57 · 78 | stable / improving | +41.7% | +1.18σ | +3.3% | +1.8% | +14.9% | +29.1% | +84.1% | same spell |
| 2007-01 → 2007-01 | 1 | 5 | neither / expensive | 3 of 8 | 56 · 57 · 65 | stable / improving | +22.7% | +1.42σ | — | -44.2% | -1.4% | -15.4% | +1.8% | same spell |
| 2004-12 → 2004-12 | 1 | 13 | neither / neither | 0 of 4 | 76 · 70 · 75 | stable / improving | +47.6% | +2.04σ | — | -2.4% | +7.1% | +30.1% | +2.8% | same spell |
| 2004-04 → 2004-04 | 1 | 5 | neither / neither | 0 of 4 | 76 · 69 · 83 | stable / improving | +52.4% | +2.25σ | — | -3.4% | +4.5% | +36.1% | -17.3% | same spell |
| 2004-02 → 2004-02 | 1 | 3 | neither / neither | 0 of 4 | 73 · 63 · 59 | stable / deteriorating | +42.9% | +2.34σ | — | -4.0% | +6.7% | +33.1% | -22.4% | same spell |
| 2003-12 → 2003-12 | 1 | 1 | neither / neither | 1 of 4 | 70 · 63 · 54 | stable / deteriorating | +38.1% | +1.75σ | — | +1.9% | +12.8% | +38.0% | -10.8% | same spell |
| 1999-11 → 2000-01 | 3 | 14 | expensive / expensive | 0 of 2 | 58 · 73 · 89 | stable / improving | +42.9% | +0.43σ | +2.7% | -37.8% | -5.2% | -34.5% | -10.7% | same spell |
| 1999-06 → 1999-07 | 2 | 9 | expensive / expensive | 0 of 2 | 63 · 64 · 87 | stable / improving | +38.1% | +0.91σ | +4.5% | -32.0% | +7.9% | -32.0% | -13.9% | same spell |
| 1999-01 → 1999-01 | 1 | 4 | expensive / expensive | 0 of 2 | 58 · 66 · 81 | stable / stable | +52.4% | +1.04σ | — | -13.6% | +15.6% | -5.2% | -2.6% | same spell |
| 1998-02 → 1998-06 | 5 | 24 | — / expensive | 0 of 2 | 70 · 71 · 84 | stable / stable | +28.6% | +1.14σ | +8.8% | -7.6% | +21.0% | +16.1% | -4.4% | same spell |
| 1997-11 → 1997-12 | 2 | 21 | — / expensive | 0 of 2 | 74 · 71 · 87 | stable / stable | +47.6% | +1.97σ | +2.6% | +0.2% | +25.5% | +43.8% | 0.0% | same spell |
| 1997-04 → 1997-09 | 6 | 14 | — / expensive | 0 of 2 | 74 · 71 · 92 | stable / improving | +52.4% | +2.06σ | +23.5% | +0.5% | +10.6% | +63.0% | -0.9% | same spell |
| 1996-11 → 1996-12 | 2 | 9 | — / neither | 0 of 2 | 66 · 57 · 88 | deteriorating / stable | +31.6% | +1.83σ | +1.2% | +3.3% | +31.8% | +101.0% | +65.2% | same spell |
| 1996-08 → 1996-09 | 2 | 6 | — / neither | 0 of 2 | 71 · 68 · 86 | stable / deteriorating | +47.4% | +1.75σ | +2.0% | +4.1% | +41.4% | +104.7% | +66.2% | same spell |
| 1996-03 → 1996-03 | 1 | 1 | — / neither | 0 of 2 | 58 · 61 · 93 | improving / stable | +26.3% | +1.98σ | — | +0.2% | +25.0% | +108.5% | +97.6% | same spell |
| S&P 500 median (closed episodes) | +2.7% (N=14) | -4.0% (N=25) | +12.8% (N=29) | +38.0% (N=25) | +28.8% (N=22) | |||||||||
Returns are S&P total return · Shiller monthly convention (dividends reinvested monthly — see "The total-return basis" under Methodology). "During" runs from the episode's first month-end to its last; a one-month episode has no span at month-end anchoring and shows "—" (its median counts multi-month episodes only). "Worst aft." is the deepest monthly total-return level within the 36 months following the episode's last month, from that month's level; +1y/+3y/+5y are measured from the episode's last month. An episode is the matching run itself — not the surrounding regime spell. Context columns show each episode's entry-month readings (MR denominator = relationships with data then; "—" where a series' history doesn't reach). Historical record, not a forecast.
one dot = one closed episode
worst aft.: 16 of 25 saw a decline · +1y: 6 of 29 ended lower · +3y: 4 of 25 · +5y: 8 of 22