Today’s live states, matched against every settled month since Aug 1981 that read the same — on the history side, the record as first published, older months partly on today’s revised data. Matched exactly, listed in full. We present the record; we do not assert predictive skill.
The four states below define "a month like today." Every month since Aug 1981 that read the same on all four is listed in the register.
today's states: live · analog months: settled month record through Oct 2026
Today's other readings — live, and not used to select the months below. They appear on each register row (as they were known at their own record months) so you can compare then with now:
both stretched margins +1.35σ · CAPE +1.57σ
64 of 278 quarters since 1957Q1 read like today, across 12 periods; the current period is 3 quarters old (since 2025Q4).
| state | quarters | periods | +1y median | +3y median | worst +3y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| both stretched ← today | 64 | 12 | +12.1% (N=61) | +32.0% (N=61) | −37.6% |
| one stretched | 95 | 22 | +10.8% (N=94) | +37.1% (N=87) | −38.7% |
| neither | 67 | 21 | +15.4% (N=67) | +41.1% (N=66) | −13.3% |
| either compressed | 52 | 8 | +15.9% (N=52) | +46.6% (N=52) | −22.1% |
S&P total return · Shiller monthly convention · quarterly join — CAPE at each quarter's end month. The windows open at the month-end after the margin figure's release. The shared house ladder, deep + pale folded · counts, never probabilities. This card describes — the analog matcher does not consume it · margins AS OF 2026Q2 · CAPE AS OF 2026-06
Log scale.
The table is complete; nothing is chosen for you.
| episode | then — entry-month readings | what followed — S&P total return | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dates | months | period | bft/HEA | curve | FS·M·IR | M/IR traj | EB then | CPS then | during | worst aft. | +1y | +3y | +5y | became |
| Oct 2026 → open | 1 | 1 | expensive / expensive | not inverted | 56 · 59 · 30 | stable / stable | +41.7% | +1.35σ | — | — | — | — | — | same period |
| Jul 2026 → Aug 2026adjacent | 2 | 5 | expensive / expensive | not inverted | 57 · 57 · 33 | stable / improving | +41.7% | +1.08σ | +3.2% | — | — | — | — | Healthy Expansion |
| May 2026 → May 2026adjacent | 1 | 3 | expensive / expensive | not inverted | 55 · 60 · 21 | improving / stable | +37.5% | +1.08σ | — | — | — | — | — | same period |
| Sep 2025 → Nov 2025 | 3 | 1 | expensive / expensive | not inverted | 46 · 52 · 23 | stable / deteriorating | +20.8% | +0.85σ | +2.6% | — | — | — | — | same period |
| Jul 2025 → Jul 2025 | 1 | 1 | expensive / expensive | inverted | 46 · 39 · 28 | deteriorating / stable | +8.3% | +0.96σ | — | — | +18.3% | — | — | same period |
| May 2025 → May 2025 | 1 | 1 | expensive / expensive | not inverted | 41 · 64 · 37 | stable / stable | +12.5% | +0.96σ | — | — | +20.7% | — | — | Transitional |
| Oct 2024 → Nov 2024 | 2 | 1 | expensive / expensive | inverted | 39 · 49 · 38 | stable / deteriorating | +33.3% | +0.82σ | +2.5% | — | +17.3% | — | — | Overheating |
| Feb 2024 → Jul 2024 | 6 | 7 | expensive / expensive | inverted | 42 · 59 · 30 | improving / stable | +4.2% | +0.97σ | +11.2% | — | +18.5% | — | — | Transitional |
| Jul 2023 → Jul 2023 | 1 | 6 | expensive / expensive | inverted | 33 · 58 · 18 | stable / stable | +25.0% | +1.00σ | — | −3.3% | +29.4% | +81.5% | — | Disinflation |
| Jul 2021 → Dec 2021 | 6 | 3 | expensive / expensive | not inverted | 67 · 71 · 25 | stable / deteriorating | +41.7% | +1.32σ | +7.7% | −15.1% | −6.5% | +42.4% | — | same period |
| Jan 2020 → Jan 2020 | 1 | 4 | expensive / neither | inverted | 47 · 55 · 53 | stable / stable | +8.3% | +1.08σ | — | +4.3% | +50.0% | +56.9% | +131.2% | same period |
| Nov 2018 → Nov 2018 | 1 | 28 | neither / expensive | not inverted | 60 · 68 · 59 | stable / deteriorating | +37.5% | +1.07σ | — | +4.0% | +28.1% | +84.6% | +100.2% | same period |
| May 2018 → Sep 2018 | 5 | 22 | expensive / expensive | not inverted | 64 · 73 · 81 | improving / improving | +62.5% | +1.12σ | +8.1% | −5.6% | +16.3% | +80.6% | +78.1% | same period |
| Mar 2018 → Mar 2018 | 1 | 20 | expensive / expensive | not inverted | 69 · 61 · 63 | deteriorating / deteriorating | +50.0% | +1.09σ | — | −3.9% | +7.7% | +63.0% | +67.2% | same period |
| Jan 2018 → Jan 2018 | 1 | 18 | expensive / expensive | not inverted | 62 · 67 · 71 | stable / improving | +33.3% | +1.06σ | — | −3.7% | +5.8% | +53.0% | +60.0% | same period |
| Oct 2017 → Oct 2017 | 1 | 15 | expensive / expensive | not inverted | 58 · 59 · 56 | stable / deteriorating | +29.2% | +1.07σ | — | −1.8% | −1.8% | +46.8% | +60.0% | same period |
| Jul 2017 → Aug 2017 | 2 | 12 | neither / neither | not inverted | 59 · 59 · 63 | stable / stable | +41.7% | +1.18σ | +0.2% | +1.6% | +11.0% | +41.5% | +58.9% | same period |
| Apr 2017 → May 2017 | 2 | 9 | neither / neither | not inverted | 57 · 61 · 60 | stable / stable | +20.8% | +0.95σ | +1.7% | +0.2% | +16.0% | +38.4% | +73.9% | same period |
| May 2007 → May 2007 | 1 | 6 | neither / neither | not inverted | 52 · 57 · 75 | stable / improving | +40.9% | +1.42σ | — | −48.2% | −15.7% | −23.8% | −0.2% | Soft Patch |
| Feb 2007 → Feb 2007 | 1 | 3 | neither / neither | inverted | 50 · 56 · 67 | stable / improving | +13.6% | +2.31σ | — | −45.9% | −4.6% | −12.3% | +5.6% | same period |
| Feb 2004 → Apr 2004 | 3 | 6 | neither / neither | not inverted | 72 · 64 · 58 | improving / deteriorating | +33.3% | +1.61σ | −0.6% | −3.6% | +8.0% | +40.9% | −9.5% | same period |
| Mar 2000 → Mar 2000 | 1 | 17 | expensive / expensive | not inverted | 56 · 73 · 89 | stable / stable | +57.1% | +0.43σ | — | −38.6% | −9.4% | −31.1% | −10.3% | same period |
| Dec 1999 → Jan 2000 | 2 | 14 | expensive / expensive | not inverted | 59 · 75 · 89 | stable / improving | +47.6% | +0.56σ | −0.1% | −39.5% | −16.8% | −38.7% | −10.6% | same period |
| Jun 1999 → Jul 1999 | 2 | 8 | expensive / expensive | not inverted | 64 · 64 · 84 | stable / stable | +38.1% | +1.04σ | +4.5% | −31.5% | +12.7% | −31.5% | −8.7% | same period |
| Feb 1999 → Feb 1999 | 1 | 4 | expensive / expensive | not inverted | 61 · 63 · 81 | stable / stable | +52.4% | +0.95σ | — | −19.4% | +10.8% | −13.5% | −8.8% | same period |
| Mar 1998 → Jul 1998 | 5 | 25 | — / expensive | not inverted | 70 · 60 · 84 | deteriorating / stable | +23.8% | +1.97σ | +7.9% | +1.3% | +30.8% | +6.3% | +7.2% | Soft Patch |
| Nov 1997 → Dec 1997 | 2 | 21 | — / expensive | not inverted | 76 · 75 · 85 | stable / stable | +42.9% | +2.15σ | +2.6% | +0.5% | +23.5% | +32.5% | −12.4% | same period |
| Jun 1997 → Sep 1997 | 4 | 16 | — / neither | not inverted | 73 · 63 · 94 | stable / stable | +33.3% | +2.02σ | +7.4% | +2.6% | +23.7% | +52.6% | +3.7% | same period |
| Dec 1996 → Jan 1997 | 2 | 10 | — / neither | not inverted | 70 · 59 · 88 | stable / stable | +26.3% | +1.75σ | +3.3% | −3.4% | +38.2% | +90.0% | +56.0% | same period |
| Aug 1996 → Oct 1996 | 3 | 6 | — / neither | not inverted | 71 · 69 · 90 | stable / stable | +42.1% | +1.80σ | +6.2% | +3.3% | +31.8% | +101.0% | +65.2% | same period |
| Mar 1996 → Mar 1996 | 1 | 1 | — / neither | not inverted | 57 · 64 · 91 | improving / stable | +15.8% | +1.76σ | — | −2.2% | +28.6% | +111.8% | +106.9% | same period |
| Oct 1995 → Oct 1995 | 1 | 3 | — / neither | not inverted | 61 · 60 · 92 | improving / stable | +21.1% | +1.39σ | — | +0.2% | +23.6% | +104.3% | +134.1% | Soft Patch |
| Aug 1995 → Aug 1995 | 1 | 1 | — / neither | not inverted | 59 · 56 · 92 | improving / stable | +21.1% | +1.39σ | — | +2.4% | +23.0% | +87.2% | +158.2% | same period |
| S&P 500 median (closed episodes) | +3.3% (N=15) | −3.3% (N=25) | +17.3% (N=29) | +46.8% (N=25) | +58.9% (N=23) | |||||||||
Returns are S&P total return · Shiller monthly convention (dividends reinvested monthly — see "The total-return basis" under Methodology). "During" runs from the episode's first month-end to its last; a one-month episode has no such window at month-end anchoring and shows "—" (its median counts multi-month episodes only). The forward windows open at the second month-end after the episode's last month, because an episode's end is known only once the next month's label is decided, five weeks into the month after it. "Worst aft." is the deepest monthly total-return level within the 36 months after that month-end, from its level. The +1y/+3y/+5y columns are measured from the same month-end. An episode is the matching months themselves — not the surrounding regime period. Context columns show each episode's entry-month readings as they were known five weeks into that month. The household-allocation and profit-share columns read the latest quarter published by then. The curve column is the 3-month to 10-year yield curve, inverted or not. A "—" shows where a series' history doesn't reach. Historical record, not a forecast.
one dot = one closed episode
worst aft.: 15 of 25 saw a decline · +1y: 6 of 29 ended lower · +3y: 6 of 25 · +5y: 7 of 23