The share of household financial assets held in equities — positioning.
No cheap era appears in this window — the last one ended Oct 1985. The full chart shows all eras since 1962.
Expensive eras shaded red, cheap eras green; the open era is brighter. Log scale. Hover shows the month’s as-of percentile. Historical bands never change — only the right edge is live.
Eras of at least two consecutive months at or above the 95th percentile of this measure's own history as it stood at the time; a single month below ends an era.
| era | qtr in tier | S&P during era | worst decline after (36m) | 10 years on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2022 → open† | 15 | +96.0% to date | open | open |
| Jul 2020 → Apr 2022 | 8 | +40.4% | -14.4% | open |
| Jan 2019 → Oct 2019 | 4 | +15.9% | -10.2% | open |
| Jan 2017 → Jul 2018 | 7 | +26.3% | -7.4% | open |
| Oct 2014 → Jan 2015 | 2 | +5.2% | -4.0% | +251.5% |
| Jan 2007 → Apr 2007 | 2 | +3.2% | -45.9% | +99.0% |
| Apr 1997 → Oct 2000 | 15 | +90.9% | -37.7% | +1.5% |
| Apr 1968 → Jan 1969 | 4 | +9.0% | -22.2% | +43.1% |
| Jul 1965 → Jan 1966 | 3 | +11.5% | -15.3% | +46.2% |
| Apr 1964 → Jan 1965 | 4 | +10.1% | -5.4% | +17.2% |
| Apr 1963 → Jul 1963 | 2 | +1.2% | +3.0% | +109.7% |
median during +10.8% (N=10) · median worst after -12.3% (N=10) · median 10y on +46.2% (N=7) — medians over completed eras only.
Eras of at least two consecutive months in the bottom fifth of this measure's own history as it stood at the time; a single month above ends an era.
No cheap era in four decades: under an expanding window, this measure's bottom fifth is anchored by the low-allocation regime of the 1940s–1980s and has been structurally out of reach since. The absence is information about the lens, not the market — its documented value lies on the expensive side, where high allocations have historically preceded weak long-horizon returns. The panel carries the cheap side: see the Buffett indicator's 2009 era, and the Capitulation Monitor for short-horizon extremes.
| era | qtr in tier | S&P during era | worst decline after (36m) | 10 years on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1973 → Oct 1985 | 49 | +196.4% | +6.4% | +327.6% |
median during +196.4% (N=1) · median worst after +6.4% (N=1) · median 10y on +327.6% (N=1) — medians over completed eras only.
Paths are S&P total return · Shiller monthly convention (dividends reinvested monthly; sp500_tr). The chart above remains the price tape. "Worst after" is the deepest monthly total-return level in the 36 months after each era — month-end grain, no intra-month lows. Construction and fidelity pins: "The total-return basis" on the Confluence methodology. Historical record, not a forecast. Methodology →