A reading of US economic conditions, built from the Momentum, Forward Stress and Inflation Regime engines.
Live· gauges updated with data through Oct 16, 2026
Expansionsince Oct 2025 · settled through Sep 2026
Momentum: Steady · Inflation: Neutral, stable · Stress signal: Not firingThe full record →
READING TODAY
Momentum is little changed (+3.0 pts over three months). Forward Stress is little changed (+0.1 pts over three months). Inflation Regime is little changed (+2.3 pts over three months).
Each column is a calendar month, so "3 months ago" means the same month three months back, not 90 days. Changes are worked out from the unrounded scores, so one can differ by 0.1 from the rounded figures beside it.
MOMENTUM
62
→ Stable
↓ 0.3 · vs Sep 2026
Why −0.3:Jobless Claims (Continuing) −0.3 · 8 others net 0.0
Latest data: Jobless Claims (Continuing) week of Oct 3 · Services Payrolls Sep 2026
FORWARD STRESS (HIGHER = CALMER)
61
→ Stable
↓ 0.9 · vs Sep 2026
Why −0.9:Trade-weighted dollar −0.4, Yield curve (10y−2y) −0.3, OFR FSI — Emerging Markets −0.2 · offset by Baa−10Y spread +0.1 · 11 others net −0.2
Latest data: Initial jobless claims week of Oct 10 · Excess Bond Premium (EBP) Sep 2026
INFLATION REGIME
46
→ Stable
→ 0 · vs Sep 2026
Why 0.0:Core PCE 12-mo vs target +0.1 · 4 others net −0.1
Latest data: Cleveland Median CPI Sep 2026 · Core PCE 12-mo vs target Aug 2026
The inputs that moved most over three months. The number is where each input now sits in its own history (0–100, higher is healthier); how much each one moved this month's score is in the card's "why" line.
Momentum62
Jobless Claims (Continuing)▲▲▲74
Industrial Production▲▲79
Real Personal Income▼54
· 6 others moved less
Forward Stress61
CP−Tbill spread▲▲▲99
Trade-weighted dollar▼▼20
Mfg weekly hours (AWHMAN)▲88
· 12 others moved less
Inflation Regime46
Core PCE 3-mo annualized▲▲96
5y breakeven inflation▼▼48
Cleveland Median CPI●56
· 2 others moved less
Dot colour: red when core PCE inflation is above the Fed's 2% target, blue when below, deeper the more strained the Inflation Regime gauge. Ring: how fast Momentum is moving — blue normal, red falling fast, green rising fast, thicker when extreme.
Arrows: how far each input moved in three months — ● under 5 points · ▲▼ 5–15 · ▲▲▼▼ 15–30 · ▲▲▲▼▼▼ over 30.
The three gauges as first published
LAST 20 YEARS · MONTHLY SCORES · NBER RECESSIONS SHADED
Momentum
Forward Stress (higher = calmer)
Inflation Regime
NBER recessions
As first published: each month is scored as of about five weeks after it began, from the data published by then — at least 85% first-published from Sep 2016; earlier years partly use today's revised data, read only once it had been published (how much).
What's broken (and what's working)
COMPONENT INDICATORS · LAST 12 MONTHS
Momentum
2 of 9 inputs have no new data yet — Real PCE Services, last published Aug 2026; Real Personal Income, last published Aug 2026. Each still counts at full weight, because each is the newest figure there is.
NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctweight
Services Payrolls· 1 mo oldNNNNNNNNNNNN18.0%
Services Weekly Hours· 1 mo oldPNgVPNPNgPNNNNN13.5%
Real PCE Services· no new dataPNNNNPVPVPVPVPVPVP13.5%
Industrial Production· 1 mo oldNgNgNgPNVPPVPPPPP13.0%
Goods Payrolls· 1 mo oldNNgNNNNNNNPPP7.0%
Real Retail Sales· 1 mo oldVNNNgNgPVPVPPPPNN11.0%
Real Personal Income· no new dataNNNNNNgNNPNNN9.0%
Sahm Rule· 1 mo oldVNNgNgNgNgNgNgNPPNN8.3%
Jobless Claims (Continuing)NNPPPPPNgNgNPP6.8%
Forward Stress
6 of 15 inputs have no new data yet — Bank loan delinquency, last published Apr 2026; Bank loan charge-off, last published Apr 2026; Building permits, last published Aug 2026; Housing starts, last published Aug 2026; Core capex orders (real), last published Aug 2026; G7 leading indicator (CLI), last published Aug 2026. Each still counts at full weight, because each is the newest figure there is.
NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctweight
Yield curve (10y−2y)PPPPNPNNNNNN13.5%
Excess Bond Premium (EBP)· 1 mo oldPPPPPPVPVPVPPVPVP9.0%
Baa−10Y spreadPVPVPPPVPVPVPVPVPVPVP3.0%
Bank loan delinquency· no new dataVNVNVNVNVNNgNgNgNgNgNgNg2.7%
Bank loan charge-off· no new dataVNVNVNVNVNVNVNVNVNVNVNVN1.8%
SLOOS lending standards· 3 mo oldNNNNNNgNgNgPPPP8.4%
CP−Tbill spreadPNPPNNgNNgNPVPVP3.6%
Building permits· no new dataNPNgPNgNNNgNNgNgNg13.0%
Housing starts· no new dataNPPNPPVNPNgNgNgNg7.0%
Core capex orders (real)· no new dataNgNgNgNgNNNNNPPP11.3%
Mfg weekly hours (AWHMAN)· 1 mo oldNNgNPNPPPPPVPVP7.5%
G7 leading indicator (CLI)· no new dataPPPPPPVPVPVPVPVPVP1.9%
Inflation Regime
2 of 5 inputs have no new data yet — Core PCE 12-mo vs target, last published Aug 2026; Core PCE 3-mo annualized, last published Aug 2026. Each still counts at full weight, because each is the newest figure there is.
NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctweight
Core PCE 12-mo vs target· no new dataNgNgNgNgVNVNVNNgNgNgNgNg35.0%
Core PCE 3-mo annualized· no new dataPNVNVNVNVNVNNgPVPVPVP20.0%
Cleveland Median CPI· 1 mo oldNgNgNgNNNNNNNNN20.0%
5y breakeven inflationNPNgNNgVNNgPPNNN15.0%
One input (10% of the Inflation Regime) is used in the score but its data is not published on this site.