Price against the ten-year average of real earnings (Shiller's cyclically adjusted P/E) — earnings power.
p98.9 says expensive vs all history; +1.61σ says how stretched vs where the trend expected it today — two questions, two answers.
No cheap era appears in this window — the last one ended Jan 1985. The full chart shows all eras since 1881.
Expensive eras shaded red, cheap eras green; the open era is brighter. Log scale. Hover shows the month’s as-of percentile. Historical bands never change — only the right edge is live.
Eras of at least two consecutive months at or above the 95th percentile of this measure's own history as it stood at the time; a single month below ends an era.
| era | mo in tier | S&P during era | worst decline after (36m) | 10 years on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2023 → open† | 33 | +70.9% to date | open | open |
| Jul 2020 → May 2022 | 23 | +29.4% | -7.1% | open |
| Nov 2019 → Feb 2020 | 4 | +6.0% | -18.9% | open |
| Dec 2016 → Jul 2019 | 32 | +40.1% | -10.3% | open |
| May 2007 → Jul 2007 | 3 | +0.9% | -48.2% | +99.4% |
| Nov 2006 → Feb 2007 | 4 | +4.5% | -45.0% | +99.1% |
| Dec 2003 → Apr 2004 | 5 | +5.4% | -3.4% | +101.4% |
| May 1995 → Jun 2002 | 86 | +116.5% | -16.5% | +58.8% |
| Jan 1964 → Apr 1966 | 28 | +28.1% | -14.3% | +56.9% |
| Nov 1961 → Dec 1961 | 2 | +1.2% | -21.2% | +90.5% |
| Jan 1930 → May 1930 | 5 | +11.8% | -76.8% | -23.0% |
| Apr 1928 → Oct 1929 | 19 | +52.4% | -79.7% | -20.1% |
| Jul 1902 → Sep 1902 | 3 | +3.5% | -25.7% | +77.9% |
| Dec 1900 → May 1902 | 18 | +30.2% | -21.3% | +80.1% |
| Jun 1898 → Nov 1899 | 18 | +34.0% | -7.3% | +144.9% |
| Dec 1897 → Feb 1898 | 3 | +3.2% | -5.5% | +106.0% |
| Jul 1897 → Oct 1897 | 4 | +9.1% | -3.3% | +107.4% |
| Dec 1891 → Oct 1892 | 11 | +6.9% | -24.0% | +134.1% |
| Sep 1886 → Dec 1886 | 4 | +3.4% | -5.1% | +17.3% |
| Jun 1886 → Jul 1886 | 2 | +1.9% | +1.1% | +18.6% |
| Feb 1881 → Jul 1881 | 6 | +4.8% | -17.1% | +24.0% |
median during +6.5% (N=20) · median worst after -16.8% (N=20) · median 10y on +80.1% (N=17) — medians over completed eras only.
Eras of at least two consecutive months in the bottom fifth of this measure's own history as it stood at the time; a single month above ends an era.
| era | mo in tier | S&P during era | worst decline after (36m) | 10 years on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1977 → Jan 1985 | 96 | +151.2% | +5.3% | +275.0% |
| Jul 1974 → Dec 1975 | 18 | +19.2% | +9.5% | +275.1% |
| Aug 1948 → Dec 1949 | 17 | +13.1% | +2.6% | +481.6% |
| Dec 1947 → Apr 1948 | 5 | +4.5% | -2.7% | +370.1% |
| Apr 1947 → May 1947 | 2 | -1.4% | +2.3% | +464.6% |
| Nov 1943 → Dec 1943 | 2 | +1.8% | +3.4% | +278.5% |
| Nov 1941 → Mar 1943 | 17 | +30.0% | +3.8% | +308.4% |
| Dec 1931 → Apr 1933 | 17 | -7.9% | +29.3% | +184.5% |
| Apr 1926 → May 1926 | 2 | +1.2% | +5.2% | +105.7% |
| Jan 1921 → Sep 1925 | 57 | +114.7% | +2.7% | +72.0% |
| Dec 1916 → Nov 1920 | 48 | +1.0% | -9.0% | +275.6% |
| Apr 1916 → Sep 1916 | 6 | +9.1% | -23.2% | +160.7% |
| Mar 1913 → Sep 1915 | 31 | +13.1% | -9.7% | +151.7% |
| Oct 1907 → Mar 1908 | 6 | +6.3% | +5.9% | +82.9% |
median during +7.7% (N=14) · median worst after +3.0% (N=14) · median 10y on +275.1% (N=14) — medians over completed eras only.
Paths are S&P total return · Shiller monthly convention (dividends reinvested monthly; sp500_tr). The chart above remains the price tape. "Worst after" is the deepest monthly total-return level in the 36 months after each era — month-end grain, no intra-month lows. Construction and fidelity pins: "The total-return basis" on the Confluence methodology. Historical record, not a forecast. Methodology →