Price against the ten-year average of real earnings (Shiller's cyclically adjusted P/E) — earnings power.
p99 says expensive vs all history; +1.58σ says how stretched vs where the trend expected it today — two questions, two answers. October's reading, like the months before it, can still move: multpl restates recent months as companies report their earnings, for months after they end, and the site takes each restatement the night it appears.
No cheap period appears in this window — the last one ended Jan 1985. The full chart shows all periods since 1881.
Log scale. Hover shows the month’s as-of percentile. A period moves only if the values under it do — for CAPE, only in its recent months, as multpl restates them.
Periods of at least two consecutive months at or above the 95th percentile of this measure's own history up to that month; a single month below ends a period.
| period | mo at this level | S&P during | worst decline after (36m) | S&P +1y from the start | +3y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2023 → open | 35 | +67.1% to date | open | +26.1% | open |
| Jul 2020 → May 2022 | 23 | +18.1% | −3.9% | +33.3% | +36.6% |
| Nov 2019 → Feb 2020 | 4 | −16.1% | +4.3% | +18.5% | +29.2% |
| Dec 2016 → Jul 2019 | 32 | +33.8% | −7.4% | +25.0% | +52.6% |
| May 2007 → Jul 2007 | 3 | −3.6% | −45.9% | −9.7% | −23.3% |
| Nov 2006 → Feb 2007 | 4 | −0.2% | −43.7% | +6.3% | −16.0% |
| Dec 2003 → Apr 2004 | 5 | −2.1% | −0.8% | +6.1% | +32.5% |
| May 1995 → Jun 2002 | 86 | +87.3% | −6.4% | +26.8% | +117.8% |
| Jan 1964 → Apr 1966 | 28 | +19.9% | −9.8% | +15.4% | +23.9% |
| Nov 1961 → Dec 1961 | 2 | −3.5% | −18.4% | −9.7% | +28.6% |
| Jan 1930 → May 1930 | 5 | −5.4% | −74.3% | −21.6% | −66.4% |
| Apr 1928 → Oct 1929 | 19 | +8.7% | −72.4% | +33.2% | −18.4% |
| Jul 1902 → Sep 1902 | 3 | −2.3% | −23.6% | −21.6% | +18.9% |
| Dec 1900 → May 1902 | 18 | +25.7% | −21.1% | +19.5% | +7.3% |
| Jun 1898 → Nov 1899 | 18 | +24.3% | −0.8% | +27.9% | +74.8% |
| Dec 1897 → Feb 1898 | 3 | −4.1% | −1.4% | +29.3% | +62.2% |
| Jul 1897 → Oct 1897 | 4 | −1.2% | −0.1% | +15.2% | +39.5% |
| Dec 1891 → Oct 1892 | 11 | +4.6% | −24.0% | +6.2% | −10.7% |
| Sep 1886 → Dec 1886 | 4 | −0.3% | −4.4% | −4.1% | +8.9% |
| Jun 1886 → Jul 1886 | 2 | +1.1% | +1.0% | +9.2% | +13.3% |
| Feb 1881 → Jul 1881 | 6 | +1.3% | −15.5% | −2.7% | 0.0% |
median during +0.5% (N=20) · median worst after −8.6% (N=20) · median +1y +12.2% (N=20) · median +3y +21.4% (N=20) — medians over completed periods only. Each window opens the month the period's first reading was published — the first day after the month — and "during" runs to the month its last reading was published.
Periods of at least two consecutive months in the bottom fifth of this measure's own history up to that month; a single month above ends a period.
| period | mo at this level | S&P during | worst decline after (36m) | S&P +1y from the start | +3y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1977 → Jan 1985 | 96 | +165.9% | −0.5% | −7.4% | +21.0% |
| Jul 1974 → Dec 1975 | 18 | +35.7% | +0.3% | +18.1% | +45.8% |
| Aug 1948 → Dec 1949 | 17 | +16.9% | +2.5% | +4.9% | +82.4% |
| Dec 1947 → Apr 1948 | 5 | +11.0% | −7.6% | +9.6% | +73.4% |
| Apr 1947 → May 1947 | 2 | +3.9% | −1.5% | +18.9% | +54.1% |
| Nov 1943 → Dec 1943 | 2 | +3.7% | −0.2% | +20.0% | +50.7% |
| Nov 1941 → Mar 1943 | 17 | +43.4% | +2.0% | +17.2% | +78.6% |
| Dec 1931 → Apr 1933 | 17 | +20.2% | +3.1% | −6.2% | +35.2% |
| Apr 1926 → May 1926 | 2 | +5.2% | +4.7% | +33.8% | +153.6% |
| Jan 1921 → Sep 1925 | 57 | +123.0% | −1.0% | +13.2% | +51.5% |
| Dec 1916 → Nov 1920 | 48 | −5.8% | −0.6% | −18.5% | +15.1% |
| Apr 1916 → Sep 1916 | 6 | +10.1% | −25.9% | +1.3% | +20.4% |
| Mar 1913 → Sep 1915 | 31 | +19.5% | −14.8% | −2.2% | +21.4% |
| Oct 1907 → Mar 1908 | 6 | +18.9% | +5.9% | +49.4% | +72.7% |
median during +17.9% (N=14) · median worst after −0.3% (N=14) · median +1y +11.4% (N=14) · median +3y +51.1% (N=14) — medians over completed periods only. Each window opens the month the period's first reading was published — the first day after the month — and "during" runs to the month its last reading was published.
Paths are S&P total return · Shiller monthly convention (dividends reinvested monthly). The chart above remains the price tape. "Worst after" is the deepest monthly total-return level in the 36 months after each period — month-end grain, no intra-month lows. Construction and fidelity pins: "The total-return basis" on the Confluence methodology. Historical record, not a forecast. How it's measured →