How washed-out is the market right now? Six oversold gauges, each measured against its own history, with the economic regime as context — historical ranges, never forecasts.
4 gauges from a washout. 1 more sits within 10 pts of its line (below).
| gauge · value · rule | calm → stretched → extreme · the tick = fires | to firing | 6 months | 3-mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX 1-month change+4.6 · fires ≥ p90 · as of Oct 16 | 1 pts | ▲ +33 | ||
| RSI-14 (S&P 500)44.1 · fires ≤ p10 | 12 pts | ▲ +7 | ||
| AAII bull-bear spread−2.9 pp · fires ≤ p10 · as of Oct 15 | 20 pts | ▲ +31 | ||
| VIX level20.0 · fires ≥ p90 · as of Oct 16 | 27 pts | ▲ +7 | ||
| 1-month return+0.3% · fires ≤ p10 | 31 pts | • 0 | ||
| Baa spread 1-month change+0.00 · fires ≥ p90 · as of Oct 14 | 39 pts | ▼ −26 | ||
| DEPTH ESCALATORS · decide Extreme Washout (a washout with at least one depth escalator at its extreme) | ||||
| 3-month return+2.9% · fires ≤ p10 | 41 pts | ▲ +11 | ||
| Drawdown from 52-week high−2.0% · fires ≤ p10 | 50 pts | • −1 | ||
| Washouts since 1981 | episodes | S&P +3m median | +6m median | +12m median | +12m mean | +12m range | positive at +12m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| during a slowdown | 6 | +2.4% | −4.4% | −3.5% | −1.9% | −36.9% … +34.1% | 3 of 6 |
| everything else | 76 | +5.5% | +10.0% | +18.4% | +14.3% | −43.5% … +56.9% | 55 of 75today |
| all washouts | 82 | +5.3% | +9.9% | +17.2% | +13.1% | −43.5% … +56.9% | 58 of 81 |
The slowdown row is 6 episodes, not 6 independent draws: they fall into 4 bunches — episodes whose starts come within 12 months of the one before — and the 2007–08 one carries 28 of its 62 washout days.
| start | end | length (td) | peak state | stage at start | family | +3m | +12m | worst drawdown to +12m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Mar 2026 | 30 Mar 2026 | 7 | Extreme | Expansion | outside a slowdown | +14.9% | — | — |
| 3 Apr 2025 | 24 Apr 2025 | 15 | Extreme | Expansion | outside a slowdown | +15.4% | +22.6% | −7.7% |
| 6 Mar 2025 | 14 Mar 2025 | 7 | Extreme | Expansion | outside a slowdown | +3.5% | +18.4% | −13.2% |
| 5 Aug 2024 | 7 Aug 2024 | 3 | Washout | Expansion | outside a slowdown | +10.5% | +22.2% | −3.9% |
| 10 Mar 2023 | 17 Mar 2023 | 6 | Washout | Expansion | outside a slowdown | +11.3% | +34.0% | −0.2% |
| 23 Sep 2022 | 17 Oct 2022 | 17 | Extreme | Expansion | outside a slowdown | +3.5% | +15.7% | −3.1% |
| 6 Sep 2022 | 6 Sep 2022 | 1 | Extreme | Expansion | outside a slowdown | +2.3% | +13.9% | −8.5% |
| 13 Jun 2022 | 17 Jun 2022 | 5 | Extreme | Expansion | outside a slowdown | +4.9% | +16.6% | −4.6% |
| 26 Apr 2022 | 24 May 2022 | 21 | Extreme | Expansion | outside a slowdown | −3.6% | −1.0% | −14.3% |
| 22 Feb 2022 | 14 Mar 2022 | 15 | Extreme | Expansion | outside a slowdown | −7.7% | −6.8% | −16.9% |
Counts and returns of named episodes · S&P price-only, daily grain · a historical reference, not a forecast. The stage is the State of the Economy's four-stage reading as known on the episode's first day (the latest month published by then).
The Capitulation Monitor counts how many of six oversold gauges sit at extremes versus their own history. The gauges are RSI-14 on the S&P 500, the 1-month return, the 1-month change in the VIX, the VIX level, the AAII bull-bear spread, and the 1-month change in the Baa credit spread. An extreme means the gauge sits in the worst 10% of its own record up to that day — each gauge is compared only against itself, and only against data available at the time. Two depth escalators (the 3-month return and the drawdown from the 52-week high) mark whether the washout comes with a deep decline behind it.
States: Ordinary (0-1 gauges at extremes) · Elevated (2-3) · Washout (4 or more) · Extreme Washout (a washout with at least one depth escalator active). Consecutive washout days merge into episodes; the page's display unit is the episode with its day count.
The regime rail. The same washout reading has meant opposite things depending on where the economy stood at the time (the State of the Economy's stage as first published — at least 85% first-published from Sep 2016; earlier years partly use today's revised data, read only once it had been published (how much)). The rail splits on the slowdown. A washout while growth is rolling over is not the same event as a washout anywhere else. During past slowdowns, washouts ran a median −7% over the following year (middle half −38% to +2%, 68% negative); everything else +19% (middle half +5% to +28%, 21% negative). The full historical measurement, its caveats, and this page's known limits are on the methodology page.
Before the record begins. The four stages start in August 1981 — the first month the State of the Economy engine reads — and each month's stage is published about five weeks after the month began. A washout day before the first stage was published carries no stage, so the page declines to quote any range for it and the synthesis line says so plainly instead. The record has 2 washout episodes that began there.
What this page does not do. It renders no forecasts and no instructions — historical ranges only, from stated data, every number checkable against the indicators' own pages.