Total US market capitalization against GDP — economic size.
Expensive eras shaded red, cheap eras green; the open era is brighter. Log scale. Hover shows the month’s as-of percentile. Historical bands never change — only the right edge is live.
Eras of at least two consecutive months at or above the 95th percentile of this measure's own history as it stood at the time; a single month below ends an era.
| era | mo in tier | S&P during era | worst decline after (36m) | 10 years on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2023 → open† | 34 | — to date | open | open |
| Jun 2023 → Aug 2023 | 3 | +2.1% | -3.5% | open |
| Apr 2020 → May 2022 | 26 | +51.0% | -7.1% | open |
| Jun 2019 → Feb 2020 | 9 | +14.8% | -18.9% | open |
| Feb 2019 → Apr 2019 | 3 | +5.7% | -7.0% | open |
| Feb 2017 → Nov 2018 | 22 | +20.8% | -5.6% | open |
| Oct 1999 → Apr 2000 | 7 | +13.1% | -40.4% | -1.7% |
| Jan 1999 → Jul 1999 | 7 | +11.3% | -32.0% | -19.3% |
median during +13.1% (N=7) · median worst after -7.1% (N=7) · median 10y on -10.5% (N=2) — medians over completed eras only.
Eras of at least two consecutive months in the bottom fifth of this measure's own history as it stood at the time; a single month above ends an era.
| era | mo in tier | S&P during era | worst decline after (36m) | 10 years on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2009 → Mar 2009 | 3 | -12.0% | +12.3% | +353.7% |
median during -12.0% (N=1) · median worst after +12.3% (N=1) · median 10y on +353.7% (N=1) — medians over completed eras only.
Paths are S&P total return · Shiller monthly convention (dividends reinvested monthly; sp500_tr). The chart above remains the price tape. "Worst after" is the deepest monthly total-return level in the 36 months after each era — month-end grain, no intra-month lows. Construction and fidelity pins: "The total-return basis" on the Confluence methodology. Historical record, not a forecast. Methodology →