Total US market capitalization against GDP — economic size.
Log scale. Hover shows the month’s as-of percentile. Each day divides by the GDP published by that day, at its value then — first-published from Dec 1991; before that, today's revised GDP stepped forward on its release lag, since no earlier first prints are archived. A period moves only if the values under it do, and from Dec 1991 on they no longer can.
Periods of at least two consecutive months at or above the 95th percentile of this measure's own history up to that month; a single month below ends a period.
This lens has 19 periods in its whole record. That is too few to say whether where it sits has meant anything for what followed, at any horizon — the columns below are history, not a finding.
| period | mo at this level | S&P during | worst decline after (36m) | S&P +1y from the start | +3y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 → open | 19 | +35.7% to date | open | +29.1% | open |
| Dec 2023 → Feb 2025 | 15 | +30.9% | −10.9% to date | +30.0% | open |
| May 2020 → Mar 2022 | 23 | +54.6% | −14.3% | +45.1% | +48.8% |
| Sep 2019 → Jan 2020 | 5 | +10.6% | −18.8% | +15.0% | +35.5% |
| Jun 2019 → Jul 2019 | 2 | +3.8% | −10.3% | +9.5% | +41.7% |
| Mar 2019 → Apr 2019 | 2 | +3.7% | −7.0% | −3.6% | +64.6% |
| Sep 2017 → Sep 2018 | 13 | +18.6% | −11.1% | +18.6% | +42.9% |
| Nov 1999 → Apr 2000 | 6 | +5.6% | −40.4% | +0.2% | −31.9% |
| Jan 1999 → Aug 1999 | 8 | +7.1% | −29.3% | +15.6% | −5.2% |
median during +8.8% (N=8) · median worst after −12.7% (N=8) · median +1y +15.3% (N=8) · median +3y +41.7% (N=7) — medians over completed periods only. Each window opens the month the period's first reading was published — the day itself (the last close of the month) — and "during" runs to the month its last reading was published.
Periods of at least two consecutive months in the bottom fifth of this measure's own history up to that month; a single month above ends a period.
| period | mo at this level | S&P during | worst decline after (36m) | S&P +1y from the start | +3y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2008 → Jun 2009 | 9 | −2.4% | +1.3% | +13.5% | +33.4% |
median during −2.4% (N=1) · median worst after +1.3% (N=1) · median +1y +13.5% (N=1) · median +3y +33.4% (N=1) — medians over completed periods only. Each window opens the month the period's first reading was published — the day itself (the last close of the month) — and "during" runs to the month its last reading was published.
Paths are S&P total return · Shiller monthly convention (dividends reinvested monthly). The chart above remains the price tape. "Worst after" is the deepest monthly total-return level in the 36 months after each period — month-end grain, no intra-month lows. Construction and fidelity pins: "The total-return basis" on the Confluence methodology. Historical record, not a forecast. How it's measured →