Corporate profits as a share of the economy — where the share stands against its own trend, what followed similar readings, and how much the current print deserves to be trusted. Counts, never probabilities; no forecasts.
Why stretched above trend, rising: +1.0 ≤ σ < +2.0 → pale red at +1.41σ; rising = σ now (+1.41σ) above σ four quarters ago (+0.83σ, 2025Q2).
Closest to changing the read: the margin is 0.41σ above the +1.0σ line that would end pale red (neutral below it); 0.59σ below the +2.0σ line (deep red at it); the direction reads flat at +0.83σ, 0.58σ below today. Distances are today’s values, not forecasts. the ladder →
Log scale. The trend and envelope are expanding fits — each point uses only history to that quarter (today's revised values; the point-in-time honesty check lives in the methodology). Left of the divider the underlying data is revised-basis; true vintages begin 1991-12. Historical bands never change — only the right edge is live. The chart opens on the last 40 years; the full record from 1947 is in Expand.
Whether the old norm still binds is exactly what the tested claim below could not settle — the share has sat above the 1947–1999 median for 22 straight years.
| band | entries | S&P median +1y | median +3y | worst +3y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| deep red | 5 | +8.1% | +59.7% | +31.9% |
| pale redTODAY | 20 | +16.4% | +46.7% | -12.2% |
| neutral | 23 | +13.9% | +32.7% | -25.1% |
| pale green | 10 | +24.4% | +41.6% | +7.1% |
| deep green | 2 | +16.4% | +51.2% | +42.2% |
Colors state distance from trend, not a return forecast — the register is the only forward statement. The share has not read below −1σ since 1991 — the green rows are pre-1991 evidence. Forward figures are S&P total return · Shiller monthly convention, from each episode entry's quarter end; medians over completed windows only.
ONE DOT = ONE CLOSED PALE RED ENTRY · DECLINES RED
1 of 19 ended lower at +1y · 2 of 17 at +3y
Colors state distance from trend, not a return forecast — the register is the only forward statement.
| entry | band | σ at entry | time in band | S&P +1y | S&P +3y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 · open | pale red | +1.18σ | 3q | open | open |
IN BAND 2025Q4 +1.18σ · 2026Q1 +1.11σ · 2026Q2 +1.41σ • OUTCOME open — the 1-year window resolves at 2026Q4 • NEXT BOUNDARY crosses to deep red at +2.0σ | |||||
| 2025Q1 | neutral | +0.92σ | 3q | +18.5% | open |
| 2024Q4 | pale red | +1.02σ | 1q | +15.4% | open |
| 2024Q1 | neutral | +0.86σ | 3q | +11.4% | open |
| 2023Q3 | pale red | +1.05σ | 2q | +29.4% | open |
| 2023Q2 | neutral | +0.99σ | 1q | +26.5% | +78.3% |
| 2023Q1 | pale red | +1.04σ | 1q | +32.3% | +74.6% |
| 2022Q4 | neutral | +0.95σ | 1q | +21.7% | +82.7% |
| 2022Q2 | pale red | +1.13σ | 2q | +13.3% | +61.7% |
| 2022Q1 | neutral | +0.89σ | 1q | -8.1% | +35.4% |
· A band entry is the quarter the reading changes band; consecutive same-band quarters are one occupancy. Every count opens to its individually listed episodes.
Colors state distance from trend, not a return forecast — the register is the only forward statement.
Across four elevated episodes since 1991, margins never closed half the gap back to their historical median in the modern era — zero reversions across all three post-2000 episodes at any horizon. Not a usable timing tool for 25 years; the register accrues as new episodes complete.
4 episodes · frozen pre-registration · both bases scored
All three qualifying recoveries (2001, 2009, 2020) were first reported weaker than they proved: episode revisions of +1.09, +1.57, +1.27 points of GDP share against an all-quarter median of +0.88. Three episodes is a small base; the claim is stated only that strongly.
feeds the trust dial · the trough quarter itself revised down in 2001
Full-history percentile (demoted to context): today sits at p100.0 of all revised history. The expanding percentile has been above its p80 line for 88 of the last 91 quarters — it describes a regime, not a signal.
how much first prints later moved (first release → today, all 140 vintage-true quarters)
Elevated spells (percentile basis): 1997–2000 · 2003–2009 · 2009–2019 (42 quarters) · 2020–present (open).
Counts, never probabilities. No forecasts; no state verdicts. S&P figures are total return · Shiller monthly convention — dividends reinvested monthly (see "The total-return basis" on the Confluence methodology). Methodology →