Four stages of an economic cycle, read from the three gauges from State of the Economy by fixed rules. Every period since 1981 listed, with what followed. Counts, never probabilities.
The page reads the gauges as first published, not as revised — at least 85% first-published from Sep 2016; earlier years partly use today's revised data, read only once it had been published (how much).
Momentum 60.7 — 15.7 points above the Slowdown line (45).
In the record: 13 completed Expansion periods since 1981 · 3 became a Contraction within 18 months · 10 did not (18 months is the window this site uses to ask whether a Contraction followed).
How firm is this reading? The stage is worked out from economic data as it is first published — at least 85% first-published from Sep 2016; earlier years partly use today's revised data, read only once it had been published (how much), and that data keeps being revised for years. Most revisions are too small to change the stage — but some are not. Looking back over the record: for months first read as Expansion, the fully revised data gave the same stage 9 times out of 10 (380 of 421). Older months agree partly by construction, since part of their first read is already today's data. For months less than three years old, whose data is still being revised, 2 times out of 3 (22 of 32). When the revised data gave a different stage, it was usually a Slowdown — 32 of the 41 times.
What the revised data says so far.
| Month | Stage as first published | Stage on today's data |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 2025 – Feb 2026 | Expansion | Slowdown |
The stage above always uses data as first published, so the whole record is read the same way. September reads Expansion either way.
S&P 500 price, log scale, month-end. Stages on the point-in-time basis: the gauges as first published (older years partly on today’s revised data, read as of the date the month is scored). The “what followed” figures on this page — through each period, the twelve months after it, and the stress register’s returns — are measured on the S&P 500 total-return chain, dividends reinvested, not on the line above. Opens on the last 20 years; the full record is in the full-size view — scroll to zoom, drag to pan.
Momentum below 30, or below 40 while falling with Forward Stress under 40 — the one stage Forward Stress helps name.
Every one of the 6 came during an NBER recession, but only 1 sat wholly inside one. In 5 of them the stage ran on past the recession's end, because the data as first published recognised each turn late. S&P 500 in the 12 months after: median +17.2%, range −20.1% to +44.7%.
The months after a Contraction, while Momentum is climbing off its trough and has not yet reached 60.
1 of 5 became a Contraction within 18 months. S&P 500 in the 12 months after: median +13.3%, range +9.9% to +59.4%.
Momentum at or above 45 and not falling into a Slowdown — the gauges say the economy is growing.
3 of 13 became a Contraction within 18 months. S&P 500 in the 12 months after: median +25.0%, range −15.7% to +50.0%.
Momentum below 50 and not rising, or below 45 — growth has stepped down without the gauges calling it a contraction.
5 of 13 became a Contraction within 18 months. S&P 500 in the 12 months after: median +14.3%, range −35.6% to +33.2%.
It fires when Forward Stress sits 20 points or more below its own 12-month high while Momentum is at or above 50, and it stops when Forward Stress climbs back within 10 of that high or the stage leaves Expansion. It never names the stage; it is reported beside it.
6 firings since 1981: 3 preceded a Contraction within 18 months (2000, Sep 2000; 2006, Dec 2006; 2019, Mar 2019); 3 did not (Oct 1984, Apr 1989, Jun 2022). Counted against the site's own Contraction periods.
| Opened | Closed | Months | What followed | S&P 500, next 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1984 | Mar 1985 | 6 | no Contraction within 18 months | +17.9% |
| Apr 1989 | Jul 1989 | 4 | no Contraction within 18 months | +15.5% |
| Sep 2000 | Dec 2000 | 4 | a Contraction began within 18 months | −27.9% |
| Dec 2006 | Jul 2007 | 8 | a Contraction began within 18 months | +6.3% |
| Mar 2019 | Nov 2019 | 9 | a Contraction began within 18 months | −3.6% |
| Jun 2022 | May 2023 | 12 | no Contraction within 18 months | +13.3% |
Since publication (Sep 2026): no firings yet.
The four rules, the persistence and exit thresholds, the inflation overlay, the stress signal and the adjudication behind it: