Where today's market sits against each measure's own history — on two bases, computed only from what was knowable at the time. We present the record; we do not assert predictive skill.
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Paths are S&P total return · Shiller monthly convention (dividends reinvested monthly; sp500_tr). The chart above remains the price tape. "Worst after" is the deepest monthly total-return level in the 36 months after each era — month-end grain, no intra-month lows. Construction and fidelity pins: "The total-return basis" on the Confluence methodology. Historical record, not a forecast. Methodology →