Data through: September 2026 · updated Oct 14 · Updates: Monthly (released ~3-4 weeks after reference month)
MThe three bars show the last 3 months for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
↑ 1.5% MoM↓ 2.2% YoY
Historical context: Currently in the 11th percentile historically — near historically low levels.
What this means right now: Sales are between 3.5M and 4.0M — the lowest months of the site's record: the low, 3.93M, most recently in August 2026. High mortgage rates and owners holding low-rate loans are the usual explanations; the site cannot measure them here.
Existing Home Sales · Monthly · 2025–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
Existing Home Sales — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Sep 2026
3.99M
Concerning reading
Aug 2026
3.93M
Concerning reading
Jul 2026
4.06M
Within normal range
Jun 2026
4.13M
Within normal range
May 2026
4.19M
Within normal range
Apr 2026
4.04M
Within normal range
Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from existing_home_sales. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Existing Home Sales?
Existing home sales measures the number of completed transactions involving previously constructed single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops. It is reported as a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in millions of units.
Existing homes make up the large majority of all home sales, which makes this the broadest measure of housing turnover. It is published monthly by the National Association of Realtors. The site's record of the series begins in April 2025, so this page cannot yet say how a reading compares with past cycles.
How We Color-Code the Existing Home Sales
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below 3.50M
Very weak — below 3.5M, lower than any month in the site's record, which begins in April 2025
3.50M – 4.00M
Weak — 3.5M to 4.0M, the record's lowest months: the low, 3.93M, most recently in August 2026 (3 of 18)
4.00M – 4.50M
Moderate — 4.0M to 4.5M, where 15 of the site's 18 months have sat
4.50M – 5.50M
Healthy — 4.5M to 5.5M, above every month in the site's record
Above 5.50M
Strong — above 5.5M, well above every month in the site's record
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Dec 2025Highest of April 2025 – September 2026
4.27M
The site's record of this series begins in April 2025: FRED carries only the latest months of NAR's copyrighted series, so no earlier history is available to the site.
Aug 2026Lowest of April 2025 – September 2026
3.93M
The record's low, 3.93M, most recently in August 2026. The same short record: the site holds no months before April 2025.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why do existing home sales matter more than new home sales?
Existing homes are the large majority of the market, so they describe more of it. New home sales reflect builders' sales only; existing sales reflect every homeowner who chooses to move, which follows confidence and affordability.
What is the "lock-in effect" on existing home sales?
When current homeowners hold mortgages taken near the January 2021 low of 2.65% and new mortgages cost 6% to 7.8%, as through 2023–24, many will not sell because the next home would mean a much higher payment. This lock-in can hold sales down even when buyers are present.
Why do existing home sales represent over 85% of total home sales, and what drives them?
The US housing stock is enormous and turns over slowly. On the site's record, existing homes have sold at an annual pace of 3.93M to 4.27M since April 2025, against new-home sales of 678K in 2025. Existing home sales follow life events and financial conditions. Because most sellers are also buyers, a fall in sales often reflects owners keeping a low-rate mortgage rather than weak demand alone.
How does the mortgage rate lock-in effect distort existing home sales as an economic indicator?
After 2022 many homeowners held 30-year mortgages at rates near the 2021 low of 2.65%. With new rates between 6% and 7.8% through 2023–24, selling meant giving up a cheap loan for a dear one, and sales stayed low even where demand was present. The site holds no count of such owners. In those years the series said more about owners' reluctance to sell than about demand.
What is the SAAR methodology used for existing home sales and why does it matter?
Existing home sales are reported at a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR): the raw monthly count is adjusted for seasonal patterns (the spring selling season, the holiday lull) and then annualized. This allows month-to-month comparison without seasonal distortion. A reading of 4.0 million means that if sales continued at the current monthly pace for a full year, 4 million homes would change hands. The adjustment keeps a strong spring month from reading as a lasting pickup.