Data through: Nov 5, 2026 · updated Nov 6 · Updates: Daily (business days)
WThe three bars show the last 3 weeks for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 76th percentile historically — elevated vs historical norms.
What this means right now: HY spreads are in a normal range — riskier borrowers are paying a moderate premium over Treasuries, and credit markets are working normally.
HY Credit Spreads · Daily · 2023–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
HY Credit Spreads — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Nov 2026
348 bps
Healthy reading
Oct 2026
344 bps
Healthy reading
Sep 2026
312 bps
Healthy reading
Aug 2026
263 bps
Very strong reading
Jul 2026
285 bps
Very strong reading
Jun 2026
275 bps
Very strong reading
Month-end readings of the same series as the chart. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the HY Spreads?
High yield (HY) credit spreads measure how much more interest riskier companies (junk-bond issuers) have to pay to borrow than the US government does. When spreads widen, lenders are demanding more for the risk of not being paid back — the bond market's reading of stress is rising. The site's copy of the series begins in May 2023 (ICE BofA licenses only the latest three years through FRED) and covers no recession, so what spreads did before past downturns cannot be counted here.
How We Color-Code the HY Spreads
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below 300 bps
Very tight — lenders asking little extra; below 300 bps on about 4 days in 10 since May 2023 (42%), none of them before October 2024
300 – 400 bps
Normal — 300 to 400 bps, the most common range: about 5 in 10 of days since May 2023 (48%)
400 – 500 bps
Moderately elevated — 400 to 500 bps, about 1 day in 10 since May 2023 (10%): May–November 2023 and April 2025
500 – 700 bps
Elevated stress — reached on 0 days since the site's record begins in May 2023
700 bps or above
Severe stress — reached on 0 days since the site's record begins in May 2023
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
May 2023Widest in the Site's Record
481 bps
The widest reading in the site's record, which begins in these very days. Spreads first closed below 400 bps on 3 July 2023.
Apr 2025April 2025 Widening
461 bps
Stress rose fast in the April 2025 sell-off: spreads widened from 259 bps in January to their widest since 2023, as the S&P 500 fell 8.8% over the 60 trading days to 3 April. They were back below 300 bps by 30 June 2025.
Jan 2025Tightest in the Site's Record
259 bps
The tightest reading in the site's record, which begins in May 2023: lenders were asking very little extra for junk-bond risk. Spreads then widened to 461 bps by 7 April 2025.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are high yield credit spreads?
High yield spreads measure how much more interest investors demand to lend to riskier companies (bonds rated BB+ or below) than to the US government. A spread of 400 bps means junk bonds yield 4 percentage points more than Treasuries.
Do credit spreads lead recessions?
Bond investors react quickly when they expect more companies to default, so spreads can widen before trouble shows up in the jobs or GDP figures. The site's HY record begins in May 2023 and covers no recession, so how far ahead they move cannot be counted here.
What spread level marks stress on the site's scale?
The site's scale reads 500 to 700 bps as elevated stress and 700 bps or above as severe. The 500–700 band has been reached on 0 days and the level of 700 or above on 0 since the record begins in May 2023, and with no earlier history the site cannot tie any level to past recessions.
How do credit spreads relate to the stock market?
When the S&P 500 falls, spreads widen — the two move in opposite directions, a strong link (their weekly changes have correlated −0.74 since May 2023). Spreads gave no warning: in the record's two stock-market falls of 10% or more to September 2026 (2023 and 2025), they widened with the fall rather than ahead of it. At both market peaks (July 2023 and February 2025) they were within 10 bps of their lowest level of the previous 60 days.
What has followed peaks in credit spreads?
When spreads come down from a peak, lenders are demanding less extra for the risk of default — the bond market's stress is easing. What followed past peaks cannot be counted here: ICE BofA licenses only the latest ~3 years of this series through FRED, so the site's history begins in May 2023 and has never closed at 500 bps or above. Its widest reading is 481 bps, on 11 May 2023. The April 2025 widening peaked at 461 bps, on 7 April 2025. The great peaks of 2008 and 2020 lie outside the record.