Source: FRED: RECPROUSM156N (Chauvet-Piger / Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
Data through: August 2026 · updated Oct 2 · Updates: Monthly · Next: Nov 2
MThe three bars show the last 3 months for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 71st percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: The model puts the probability that the economy is currently in recession below 10%. Its four coincident inputs — payrolls, industrial production, real income and real sales — are not moving together the way they do in recessions. The model is coincident, not leading: it says nothing about the next 12 months, and it read under 10% in the year before five of the eight recession starts since 1967.
Smoothed US Recession Probability · Monthly · 1967–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
Smoothed US Recession Probability — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Aug 2026
0.6%
Very strong reading
Jul 2026
0.2%
Very strong reading
Jun 2026
0.1%
Very strong reading
May 2026
0.1%
Very strong reading
Apr 2026
0.1%
Very strong reading
Mar 2026
0.1%
Very strong reading
Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from ny_fed_recession_prob. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Recession Probability?
The Smoothed US Recession Probability is a monthly probability of the US economy currently being in recession, derived from the Chauvet-Piger dynamic factor Markov-switching model. The model is applied to four monthly coincident indicators: nonfarm payroll employment, industrial production, real personal income excluding transfers, and real manufacturing and trade sales.
The model was developed by economists Marcelle Chauvet and Jeremy Piger and is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis on FRED as series RECPROUSM156N. It is a coincident model rather than a leading model, rising to high probabilities in most NBER-dated recessions (it reached 100% in 1974, 2008–09 and 2020, and peaked near 30% in 2001). But its real-time signals have historically aligned closely with the NBER's eventual recession dating.
How We Color-Code the Recession Probability
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below 10.0%
The model reads no recession under way — all but 12 of the months outside NBER recessions since 1967 read below 10%
10.0% – 20.0%
Low — reached outside recessions in only 7 months since 1967 (April 1975, January 1978, January 1980, December 1982, December 2000–January 2001, September 2005)
20.0% – 35.0%
Elevated — seen outside recessions only in April 1979 and February–March 2001
35.0% – 50.0%
High — outside recessions only in November–December 1969, the two months before the 1970 recession
Above 50.0%
Recession reading — every one of the 53 months above 50% since 1967 fell inside an NBER recession
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Sep 2008Global Financial Crisis peak
100.0%
The model reached nearly 100% in September 2008, the month Lehman Brothers collapsed and credit markets froze. It first passed 50% in March 2008, two months after the recession began, and last read above 50% in June 2009, the NBER's trough month.
Apr 2020COVID-19 recession
100.0%
The model immediately hit 100% in April 2020 as payrolls, industrial production, and personal income all collapsed simultaneously. The recession was the sharpest on record but also the shortest — lasting only two months (Feb-Apr 2020).
Jun 2009Post-GFC recovery signal
62.3%
As the four coincident indicators began recovering in mid-2009, the model retreated from its peak of 100%: 62.3% in June, then 2.5% in July 2009. That provided an early quantitative signal that the recession was ending, consistent with the NBER's eventual June 2009 trough date.
Frequently Asked Questions
Has the model ever been wrong?
In the sense of a false alarm, no: every month above 50% since June 1967 — 53 of them — fell inside an NBER recession. The probability rose above 50% in seven of the eight recessions since then (in 2001 it peaked near 30%). But it is a coincident model: the first month above 50% came 0–7 months after each recession began, never before one. Each month's reading is published about 5 weeks after the month ends. In 2022–23 it stayed below 2%. The series is also revised as the model is re-estimated with each release, so past months can change; this site keeps today's figures, not the ones first printed.
What are the four inputs?
Nonfarm payroll employment, industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales — four monthly measures of current activity. The model extracts their common movement and estimates, each month, the probability that the economy is in its recession state.
What is the difference between this and other recession models?
This model uses four coincident series (payrolls, industrial production, real income, real sales) and estimates whether a recession is under way now. Yield-curve models, such as the New York Fed's, use the Treasury term spread to estimate the probability of a recession within the next 12 months — a leading estimate. The two answer different questions.
How does the recession probability model work, and what inputs does it use?
It is the Chauvet-Piger dynamic-factor Markov-switching model. The four coincident series share one unobserved factor that switches between an expansion state and a recession state. The model reports the smoothed probability of the recession state each month. It is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis on FRED as RECPROUSM156N, from June 1967, and is revised as the model is re-estimated with new data.
How does this read alongside the site's other recession gauges?
It is a coincident gauge: it registers a recession once payrolls, production, income and sales are falling together — 0–7 months after the start in the seven recessions since 1967 in which it passed 50%. The Sahm Rule, also built on coincident data, has triggered within three months of every recession start since 1960, though it also fired twice with no recession, in 1976 and 2024. The yield curve is a leading gauge. A low reading here means no recession has yet registered in the coincident data, not that none is coming.