Data through: August 2026 · updated Oct 28 · Updates: Monthly · Next: Nov 24
MThe three bars show the last 3 months for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 30th percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: Home prices are growing 2% to 4% a year — in line with long-run income growth, as in 74 months since 1988. Homeowners build equity at a sustainable pace without affordability eroding.
Home Prices (Case-Shiller) · Monthly · 1988–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
Home Prices (Case-Shiller) — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Aug 2026
2.1%
Very strong reading
Jul 2026
1.9%
Healthy reading
Jun 2026
1.6%
Healthy reading
May 2026
1.3%
Healthy reading
Apr 2026
1.0%
Healthy reading
Mar 2026
0.8%
Within normal range
Month-end readings of the same series as the chart. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the Home Price YoY?
The year-over-year (YoY) change in US home prices measures how much home values have changed compared to the same month one year ago. Unlike the monthly change, which captures short-term momentum, the YoY rate shows the sustained trend. It filters out seasonal patterns and month-to-month noise to show the underlying direction of the housing market.
The year-over-year change is the figure most often quoted for home prices. It directly affects household wealth — for most homeowners the home is the largest single asset — and feeds consumer spending through the wealth effect. Year-over-year declines are uncommon: 77 of the 464 months since 1988, 62 of them in one period from March 2007 to April 2012. They have not been a reliable warning. Prices turned negative before only 1 of the 4 recessions on the record: March 2007, published seven months before the 2008 recession began. They did not turn negative before 1990, 2001 or 2020, and the 2023 decline came with no recession.
How We Color-Code the Home Price YoY
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below −2.0%
Falling — prices more than 2% below a year earlier; 53 months, 1991 and 2007–12 (the low −12.8% in February 2009)
−2.0% – 0.0%
Slipping — prices 0 to 2% below a year earlier; 24 months, the last in May 2023
0.0% – 1.0%
Flat — growth of 0 to 1%, below inflation
1.0% – 2.0%
Modest — growth of 1% to 2%
2.0% – 4.0%
Sustainable — growth of 2% to 4%, in line with long-run income growth
4.0% – 6.0%
Healthy — growth of 4% to 6%, the series' most common band (80 months)
6.0% – 8.0%
Brisk — growth of 6% to 8%; appreciation outrunning incomes
8.0% – 12.0%
Overheating — growth of 8% to 12%; affordability eroding
Above 12.0%
Boom — growth above 12%; 42 months, 2004–06 and 2021–22 (the peak +20.8% in March 2022)
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Mar 2022COVID Boom Peak
+20.8%
The fastest national home price appreciation in the Case-Shiller record (+20.8%, March 2022), which begins in 1987, on record-low mortgage rates and pandemic demand. Growth slowed through 2022, and prices dipped 0.3% below a year earlier in May 2023 as rates rose.
Feb 2009Financial Crisis Trough
−12.8%
The deepest year-over-year fall in the Case-Shiller record. Prices were below a year earlier for 62 straight months, March 2007 to April 2012, and the index did not regain its July 2006 high until January 2017.
2023Rate-shock dip and rebound
YoY: −0.3% in May, +5.7% by December
Prices held up through mortgage rates above 7%: growth fell to −0.3% in May 2023, then climbed back to 5.7% by December. Few homes were for sale as owners kept their low-rate mortgages, so even reduced demand was enough to lift prices.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the long-term average rate of US home price appreciation?
Over the Case-Shiller record from 1987 to July 2026, US home prices have risen about 4.3% a year in nominal terms and about 1.5% a year after inflation (1.1% a year to the start of 2020). That is modest given the cultural emphasis on homeownership as wealth-building, and uneven: roughly flat in real terms from 1987 to 2012, then 3.8% a year since. The 2021–22 gains above 15% were far above that.
Why did home prices hold up in 2023 despite 7%+ mortgage rates?
Owners who had borrowed near the January 2021 low of 2.65% would not sell at 7% rates, so few homes were for sale. Inventory bottomed at 347K in February 2022 and was still a fifth below its pre-pandemic level in late 2023. With little supply, even reduced demand was enough to hold prices. Growth dipped to −0.3% in May 2023 and was back above 5% by December.
What home price decline would cause a financial crisis?
It depends on how much debt homeowners carry against their homes. In the 2007–12 fall the Case-Shiller index dropped 27% from its July 2006 high to February 2012, and borrowers with little equity defaulted in large numbers. The site holds no series on home equity or mortgage balances, so it cannot say what fall would do the same today.
Do home prices lead or lag the economic cycle?
On the Case-Shiller record housing has led the economy before 1 of the 4 recessions: prices turned negative year over year in March 2007, ten months before the 2008 recession began (seven as published). They did not turn negative before the 1990, 2001 or 2020 recessions, and the 2023 dip came with none. The chain from rate rises to price declines to economic weakness is long and has not run the same way twice.
At what year-over-year home price growth rate does affordability become a systemic concern?
Price growth of 6% to 8% a year or more outruns incomes when pay is growing about 3% to 4% — the site's wage-growth series read 3.1% in Oct 2026 — and squeezes first-time buyers out. Growth above 12% came in 42 months since 1988, in 2004–06 and 2021–22, peaking at 20.8% in March 2022. Growth of 2% to 4% a year, the band the site colors as sustainable, is close to long-run income growth.