USMacroBETA

Home Prices (Case-Shiller)

Positive
CURRENT VALUE
1.5%
Source: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller via FRED
Data through: June 2026 · updated Aug 28 · Updates: Monthly (2-month lag)
The three bars show the last 3 months (end-of-month values) for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 25th percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: Home prices are appreciating at a healthy pace — consistent with the long-term historical average of 3-5% annually. Homeowners are building equity at a sustainable rate without creating dangerous bubble conditions.
Home Prices (Case-Shiller) · Monthly · 1988–2026
Grey areas = NBER recessions · Scroll to read · zoom and pan in Expand
Monthly values

Home Prices (Case-Shiller) — the last 12 months

Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.

MonthValueBand
Jun 20261.5%Healthy reading
May 20261.2%Healthy reading
Apr 20261.0%Within normal range
Mar 20260.8%Within normal range
Feb 20260.8%Within normal range
Jan 20260.9%Within normal range

Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from home_price_yoy. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.

What is the Home Price YoY?

The year-over-year (YoY) change in US home prices measures how much home values have changed compared to the same month one year ago. Unlike the monthly change (which captures short-term momentum), the YoY rate shows the sustained trend — filtering out seasonal patterns and month-to-month volatility to reveal the underlying direction of the housing market.

The YoY home price change is the most commonly cited measure of housing market health in media and financial markets. It directly affects household wealth (home equity represents 30-40% of net worth for the median American homeowner) and influences consumer spending through the wealth effect. A sustained YoY decline in home prices has historically been one of the most reliable leading indicators of consumer stress, as the erosion of home equity reduces both actual wealth and the sense of financial security for homeowning families.

How We Color-Code the Home Price YoY

Our heatmap colors each indicator based on historically significant thresholds:

Above +8% YoY
Very strong appreciation — strong wealth creation, affordability declining
+3% to +8% YoY
Healthy appreciation — normal long-term wealth building pace
0% to +3% YoY
Modest growth — market stabilizing, affordability improving
-5% to 0% YoY
Declining prices — wealth erosion, market under stress
Below -5% YoY
Sharp decline — significant wealth destruction, housing crisis

Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?

When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:

Jun 2022COVID Boom Peak
+18.0%
The highest national home price appreciation ever recorded — driven by historic mortgage rate lows and pandemic-driven housing demand. Subsequently reversed sharply as rates rose.
2009Financial Crisis Trough
-12.7%
The deepest YoY home price decline in modern history — as the housing bubble collapsed and millions of homeowners defaulted, prices fell for 4+ consecutive years.
2023Post-Rate-Hike Resilience
YoY bounced from flat back to +5%+
Surprisingly resilient home prices despite 7%+ mortgage rates — driven by extreme inventory shortage as the lock-in effect kept existing owners from selling.

Investor Checklist — Current Reading

Based on the current Home Price YoY reading of 1.5% (Positive):

✓Healthy appreciation — sustainable wealth building, positive for housing sector
✓Good environment for homebuilders, home improvement, and mortgage companies

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the long-term average rate of US home price appreciation?
After adjusting for inflation, US home prices have appreciated at approximately 1% per year in real terms over the very long run — surprisingly modest given the cultural emphasis on homeownership as wealth-building. Nominal (not inflation-adjusted) appreciation has averaged approximately 4-5% annually. The COVID-era 20%+ gains were far above historical norms.
Why did home prices hold up in 2023 despite 7%+ mortgage rates?
The lock-in effect — existing homeowners with 2.5-3.5% mortgages refused to sell, keeping inventory near historic lows. With few homes available, even reduced buyer demand was sufficient to support or increase prices in most markets. This supply constraint prevented the price correction many expected from higher rates.
What home price decline would cause a financial crisis?
It depends on leverage — how much debt homeowners have relative to home values. The 2008 crisis occurred because millions of homeowners had minimal equity (some negative equity from day one with zero-down loans) and a 10-15% price decline triggered mass defaults. Today's homeowners have much more equity on average, so a 10-15% decline would be uncomfortable but unlikely to trigger a 2008-style crisis.
Do home prices lead or lag the economic cycle?
Housing leads the economy — home price declines typically begin 6-18 months before broad recessions as higher rates reduce demand and eventually force prices lower. The lag from rate hikes to home price declines to economic weakness is one of the longest in macroeconomics, which is why housing is such an important leading indicator.
At what year-over-year home price growth rate does affordability become a systemic concern?
Home price appreciation above 6–8% annually is considered unsustainable when incomes are growing at 3–4%, because it steadily erodes affordability for first-time buyers and compresses the share of households who can qualify for a mortgage. The 2020–2022 period saw YoY gains above 15–20% in some markets, which contributed directly to the affordability crisis that followed when rates rose. A normalized, healthy appreciation rate is roughly 2–4% per year — close to but not exceeding long-run income growth.