Scorecard

How calls are graded

A call is logged the day the site first shows it, from the twice-daily captures of what the site served; nobody types a row. Each source is graded by its engine's own sentence, fixed on the call the day it is made. A call is held or did not hold; nothing is removed.

Regime

the stage for data month m, as first served — a change of stage, and the standing stage each month. Resolves when month m+3 is on the revised record; three months is the longest confirmation the stage rules use. Confirmed: the revised record puts month m in the same stage. Reversed: it puts month m in a different stage, named. The window ends when data month m+3 is on the revised record. Its page

Stress signal

the stress signal opening, open since month o. Followed: a Contraction period begins on the revised record 1 to 18 months after o. Not followed: none has begun by o+18. Pending until one of the two. A forming Contraction does not count. The window ends the Contraction's confirmation, or month o+18 on the revised record. Its page

Gauge trajectory, calls made before November 3, 2026

a composite's trajectory state for data month m, as first served (Momentum, Forward Stress, Inflation Regime). The outcome is the same rule applied to months m → m+3 on today's revised data: the score change, against the engine's own band. Held: the same state. Opposite: improving against deteriorating. Moved: any other change. The window ends when the composite's month m+3 is on the revised record. Its page

Not replayed: the note under the calls made from November 3, 2026 covers the later rule, which is the rule the replay tested; calls under this earlier rule were graded on the revised record.

Yield curve

a 3-month to 10-year inversion as it enters the record. Hit: an NBER peak is declared inside the 18-month window. Scored at once. Miss: none is declared by 12 months after the window closes. Unscored until one of the two. The window ends 12 months after the 18-month window closes, or the peak's declaration. Its page

Gauge band

a gauge's live reading crossing into another band, the day it is first shown (Momentum, Forward Stress, Inflation Regime). A band crossing is a call the day the live reading first shows it. It held if the next month to settle after the crossing reads in the new band or beyond it in the same direction; it did not hold otherwise. The window ends when that month settles. The window ends on that month's settle date, the day its month-end score is written to the record, never restated after. Its page

Replayed, not live: applied to every month from September 2016 to August 2026 on the scores as first published, a band crossing held 67% / 93% / 61% of the time (Momentum / Forward Stress / Inflation Regime). Over the same replayed months, 42 / 14 / 41 crossings were graded, and a gauge's band held or extended one month on, crossing or not, 68% / 88% / 68% of the time. A crossing holds at the same rate as any month's band: on no gauge did it beat that base rate beyond the replay's margin of error. Live grades land as each crossing's next month settles; the replay is recorded as SCORE-DR-7 in the scorecard's decision records.

Gauge trajectory, calls made from November 3, 2026

a gauge card's trajectory state for month m, made the day month m settles, with its horizon (Momentum, Forward Stress, Inflation Regime). A trajectory call is the state a gauge card shows when a month settles, with its horizon. It held if, when the month that many months later settles, the score as first published moved the called way by at least the card's own threshold (for Stable, stayed within it). Calls made before November 3, 2026 are graded on the earlier rule: the revised record three months on. The window ends on the settle date of the month that many months later, when its score as first published is written to the record. Its page

Replayed, not live: applied to every month from September 2016 to June 2026 on the scores as first published, this rule held 51% / 47% / 29% of the time (Momentum / Forward Stress / Inflation Regime). Over the same replayed months, always calling Stable would have held 69% / 55% / 31%. Over the same replayed months, calls of Improving or Deteriorating held 3% / 33% / 25%, and Stable calls 73% / 59% / 37%. A trajectory call describes the last three months; graded as a forecast of the next three, it has not beaten a naive baseline. Live grades begin February 2027; the replay is recorded as SCORE-DR-6 in the scorecard's decision records.

Revisions

A call is graded once, at the first night on which its window has ended on the record as it then stands, and the resolution line is final: a later revision of the data never regrades a call. Where the record later moves the month that graded a call, the move is noted beside the outcome, never written over it.

Verifying a call

Open the public repository's history for its calls.jsonl file and find the first commit that adds the call's line: its date is the archived-on day shown beside the call. Each line carries a hash chained to the line before it, so a line changed or inserted later breaks every hash after it, and the repository's hashes folder holds the ledger's sha256 for each day.

Evidence

Each call's evidence link opens its page as it stood on the call's day where that page reads a date, and as it is today where it has no dated view.

Not on the scorecard: the valuation periods and the Profit Share register, which describe and make no call. The Revisions Ledger and the heatmap's cells are counts over records, not calls. The Capitulation Monitor, Economic Breadth and the Housing Cycle list what followed without a rule that grades a call.