A reading of US economic conditions, built from the Momentum, Forward Stress and Inflation Regime engines.
Live· gauges updated with data through Nov 6, 2026
Expansionsince Oct 2025 · settled through Oct 2026
Oct 2026 monthly close:Momentum: Steady · Inflation: Strained, easing · Stress signal: Not firingThe full record →
The regime is decided once a month on settled months; the cards below show the day’s reading.
READING TODAY
Stabilization sign: Last month's 15.2-pt drop in Inflation Regime has not extended — this month's move is +3.1 pts, back inside the normal range. Momentum is little changed (+5.8 pts over three months). Forward Stress is little changed (−1.6 pts over three months).
Each column is a calendar month, so "3 months ago" means the same month three months back, not 90 days. Changes are worked out from the unrounded scores, so one can differ by 0.1 from the rounded figures beside it.
The two earlier columns show each month's score as first published, the one the page showed when that month settled; today's is the live reading, and the change is worked out from these. What that means here.
MOMENTUM
63
→ Stable · 3 mo
Inputs through Oct 2026 · updated Nov 7
↑ 2.5 · vs Sep 2026
Why +2.5:Industrial Production +3.5, Services Payrolls +2.0, Services Weekly Hours +1.5 · offset by Real Personal Income −1.9, Real Retail Sales −1.8 · 4 others net −0.8
Latest data: Jobless Claims (Continuing) week of Oct 24 · Services Payrolls Oct 2026
FORWARD STRESS (HIGHER = CALMER)
58
→ Stable · 3 mo
Inputs through Nov 2026 · updated Nov 7
↑ 1.9 · vs Oct 2026
Why +1.9:CP−Tbill spread +3.3, Core capex orders (real) +1.9, Initial jobless claims +0.2 · offset by Building permits −1.1, Mfg weekly hours (AWHMAN) −0.9 · 10 others net −1.5
Latest data: Initial jobless claims week of Oct 31 · Excess Bond Premium (EBP) Oct 2026
INFLATION REGIME
33
→ Stable · 3 mo
Inputs through Nov 2026 · updated Nov 7
↑ 3.1 · vs Oct 2026
Why +3.1:5y breakeven inflation +3.4, Core PCE 12-mo vs target +0.4, Cleveland Median CPI +0.2 · offset by Core PCE 3-mo annualized −0.9 · 1 other
The inputs that moved most over three months. The number is where each input now sits in its own history (0–100, higher is healthier); how much each one moved this month's score is in the card's "why" line.
Momentum63
Jobless Claims (Continuing)▲▲▲70
Real Personal Income▼▼▼37
Services Weekly Hours▲▲59
· 6 others moved less
Forward Stress58
CP−Tbill spread▲▲99
Trade-weighted dollar▼▼20
Housing starts▼16
· 12 others moved less
Inflation Regime33
Core PCE 3-mo annualized▼▼▼33
5y breakeven inflation●57
Core PCE 12-mo vs target●18
· 2 others moved less
Dot colour: red when core PCE inflation is above the Fed's 2% target, blue when below, deeper the more strained the Inflation Regime gauge. Ring: how fast Momentum is moving — blue normal, red falling fast, green rising fast, thicker when extreme.
Arrows: how far each input moved in three months — ● under 5 points · ▲▼ 5–15 · ▲▲▼▼ 15–30 · ▲▲▲▼▼▼ over 30.
The three gauges as first published
LAST 20 YEARS · MONTHLY SCORES · NBER RECESSIONS SHADED
Momentum
Forward Stress (higher = calmer)
Inflation Regime
NBER recessions
As first published: each month is scored as of about five weeks after it began, from the data published by then — at least 85% first-published from Sep 2016; earlier years partly use today's revised data, read only once it had been published (how much).
How far each gauge's first reading tends to move once later data arrive is in the methodology.
What's broken (and what's working)
COMPONENT INDICATORS · LAST 12 MONTHS
Momentum
NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctweight
Services PayrollsNNNNNNNNNNNN18.0%
Services Weekly HoursPNgVPNPNgPNNNPN13.5%
Real PCE Services· 1 mo oldPNNNNPVPVPVPVPVPVP13.5%
Industrial Production· 1 mo oldNgNgNgPNVPPVPPPPP13.0%
Goods PayrollsNNgNNNNNNNPPP7.0%
Real Retail Sales· 1 mo oldNNNgNgPVPVPPPPNN11.0%
Real Personal Income· 1 mo oldNNNNNNgNNPPNgNg9.0%
Sahm RuleVNNgNgNgNgNgNgNPPNN8.3%
Jobless Claims (Continuing)NNPPPPPNgNgNPP6.8%
Forward Stress
6 of 15 inputs have no new data yet — Bank loan delinquency, last published Aug 2026; Bank loan charge-off, last published Aug 2026; Building permits, last published Oct 2026; Housing starts, last published Oct 2026; Core capex orders (real), last published Oct 2026; G7 leading indicator (CLI), last published Oct 2026.
DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovweight
Yield curve (10y−2y)PPPNPNNNNNNN13.5%
Excess Bond Premium (EBP)· 1 mo oldPPPPPVPVPVPPVPPP9.0%
Baa−10Y spreadVPVPPPVPVPVPVPVPVPVPVP3.0%
Bank loan delinquency· no new dataVNVNVNVNNgNgNgNgNgNgNgNg2.7%
Bank loan charge-off· no new dataVNVNVNVNVNVNVNVNVNVNVNVN1.8%
SLOOS lending standards· 1 mo oldNNNNNgNgNgPPPNN8.4%
CP−Tbill spreadNPPNNgNNgNPVPVNVP3.6%
Building permits· no new dataPNgPNgNNNgNNgNgNgNg13.0%
Housing starts· no new dataPPNPPVNPNNgVNVNVN7.0%
Core capex orders (real)· no new dataNgNgNgNNNNNPPPP11.3%
Mfg weekly hours (AWHMAN)· 1 mo oldNgNPNPPPPPVPPP7.5%
G7 leading indicator (CLI)· no new dataPPPPPPVPVPVPVPVPVP1.9%
Inflation Regime
3 of 5 inputs have no new data yet — Core PCE 12-mo vs target, last published Oct 2026; Core PCE 3-mo annualized, last published Oct 2026; Cleveland Median CPI, last published Oct 2026.
DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovweight
Core PCE 12-mo vs target· no new dataNgNgNgVNVNVNNgNgNgVNVNVN35.0%
Core PCE 3-mo annualized· no new dataNVNVNVNVNVNNgPVPNgNgNg20.0%
Cleveland Median CPI· no new dataNgNgNNNNNNNNNN20.0%
5y breakeven inflationPNgNNgVNNgPPNNNgN15.0%
University of Michigan 5-year inflation expectations; shown as an input only, pending the publisher’s permission to display its data.
Each still counts at full weight, because each is the newest figure there is.