Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers via FRED
Data through: September 2026 · updated Sep 12 · Updates: Monthly
MThe three bars show the last 3 months (end-of-month values) for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
↓ 1.9% MoM↓ 19.7% YoY
Historical context: Currently in the 0th percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: Current conditions are poor — consumers feel financial pressure relative to a year ago. Spending on discretionary items is likely constrained as households prioritize necessities.
UMich Current Conditions · Monthly · 1960–2026
Grey areas = NBER recessions · Scroll to read · zoom and pan in Expand
Monthly values
UMich Current Conditions — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Sep 2026
50.9
Concerning reading
Aug 2026
51.9
Concerning reading
Jul 2026
54.8
Concerning reading
Jun 2026
47.7
Severe/critical reading
May 2026
45.8
Severe/critical reading
Apr 2026
52.5
Concerning reading
Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from umich_current_conditions. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the UMich Current?
The UMich Current Economic Conditions Index is one of the two sub-components of the broader University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. While overall sentiment captures both current feelings and future expectations, the Current Conditions sub-index measures only how consumers feel about their financial situation and buying conditions right now — compared to a year ago.
This sub-index is particularly useful for understanding actual present-day spending behavior, as opposed to forward-looking expectations. When Current Conditions diverges from Expectations (the other sub-index), it reveals important economic dynamics: improving Current Conditions with deteriorating Expectations suggests consumers feel okay today but are worried about the future. Deteriorating Current Conditions with improving Expectations suggests consumers are struggling now but see light at the end of the tunnel.
How We Color-Code the UMich Current
Our heatmap colors each indicator based on historically significant thresholds:
Above 95
Excellent current conditions — consumers feeling financially strong
80 – 95
Good current conditions — solid present-day financial health
Very poor — consumers in significant financial stress
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Jan 2000Dot-Com Peak Prosperity
115.4
Record current conditions — strong employment, rising stock wealth, and low inflation created the best reported personal financial conditions in the survey's history.
Jun 2022Inflation Erosion Bottom
62.2
Near-historic low — 9% inflation was making consumers feel dramatically worse off even though employment was strong. Demonstrates how inflation directly impacts current financial feelings.
Nov 2008Financial Crisis
63.6
Sharp collapse as the financial crisis destroyed wealth through stock and home price declines — current conditions reflected actual financial deterioration, not just fear.
Investor Checklist — Current Reading
Based on the current UMich Current reading of 50.9 (Negative):
✓Favor consumer staples (necessities) over discretionary (wants)
ℹCheck if Expectations are better — if so, current stress may be temporary
Frequently Asked Questions
What specific questions make up the Current Conditions index?
The Current Conditions sub-index is derived from two of the five UMich survey questions: (1) "Would you say that you and your family are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?" and (2) "Do you think now is a good or bad time for people like yourself to buy major household items?" These two questions focus entirely on present-day financial reality.
Why did Current Conditions fall so sharply in 2022 despite strong employment?
The 2022 example perfectly illustrates how inflation can override employment in consumer financial assessments. Despite historically low unemployment (3.5%), 9% inflation meant consumers' paychecks bought significantly less — their real (inflation-adjusted) purchasing power was falling even as nominal wages rose. Consumers felt worse off because they were, in real terms.
Is Current Conditions or Expectations more important for predicting recessions?
Expectations is generally considered more predictive of future economic activity, while Current Conditions is more reflective of the present. However, when Current Conditions deteriorates sharply while employment remains strong (as in 2022), it can signal that inflation is creating a spending constraint that will eventually show up in GDP data.
How does the wealth effect influence Current Conditions?
Significantly — stock market and home price changes directly affect how consumers perceive their financial situation. When stock markets rise and home values increase, consumers who own these assets feel wealthier and report better current conditions even if their wages haven't changed. This wealth effect channel makes Current Conditions sensitive to asset price movements.
How does UMich Current Conditions differ from the headline Consumer Sentiment index?
The Current Conditions Index isolates how consumers feel about their finances and buying conditions right now, stripping out forward-looking expectations. It tends to be more stable than the Expectations sub-index and more closely tracks actual current spending behavior. When Current Conditions diverges significantly from Expectations — for example, conditions holding up while expectations collapse — it often signals that a deterioration in spending is coming but hasn't yet hit the data.
Trending Questions
AI context · refreshed August 30, 2026
What investors are searching about this indicator right now, answered using current news and data.
1What happened to the Michigan Current Conditions index in August?
The Current Conditions index stood at 51.9 in August, down from 54.8 in July. The three-point drop suggests households are feeling slightly less positive about their present financial situation and the state of the economy compared with the previous month.
2Why did consumer sentiment on current conditions decline in August?
The drop in sentiment shows households continue to face pressure from elevated costs as the conflict in the Middle East drags on, with national average gasoline prices held above $4 a gallon across August, and broader inflation has eroded incomes. Consumers expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 4% over the next year, and they continue to worry that "inflation will remain elevated for the foreseeable future" while being increasingly worried that prospects elsewhere in the economy could be weakening.
3Which consumer groups saw the largest declines in their views of current conditions?
Notably large reductions were seen among older consumers, lower-income consumers, and those without a college degree, all particularly vulnerable to any erosion of purchasing power stemming from inflation. Sentiment declined across all political groups, particularly among Republicans, while older, lower- and middle-income consumers and those without stock holdings saw sharper deterioration.
4How does the August Current Conditions reading compare to year-ago levels?
Despite the upward revision, sentiment fell about 6% from July and remained roughly 11% below its year-ago level, reflecting persistent concerns that inflation will remain elevated for the foreseeable future. The Current Conditions Index declined to 51.9 from 54.8 in July.
5What do consumers expect about income growth relative to inflation?
Only 8% of consumers expect their income growth to outpace inflation over the next year. That detail points to a household sector focused on protecting budgets rather than expanding discretionary spending.