WThe three bars show the last 3 weeks for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 33th percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: AAII sentiment is balanced — roughly equal proportions of bulls and bears. No strong contrarian signal in either direction. Markets are more likely driven by fundamentals than sentiment extremes.
AAII Bull-Bear Spread · Weekly · 1987–2026
Grey areas = NBER recessions · Scroll to read · zoom and pan in Expand
Monthly values
AAII Bull-Bear Spread — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Sep 2026
-1.4 pp
Within normal range
Aug 2026
-11.5 pp
Healthy reading
Jul 2026
-11.1 pp
Healthy reading
Jun 2026
+8.8 pp
Within normal range
May 2026
-6.3 pp
Within normal range
Apr 2026
-1.6 pp
Within normal range
Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from aaii_bull_bear_spread. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the AAII Sentiment?
The AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) Bull-Bear Spread measures the difference between the percentage of individual investors who are bullish on stocks over the next six months minus the percentage who are bearish. A positive spread means more investors are bullish than bearish; a negative spread means more are bearish than bullish.
This survey is a classic contrarian sentiment indicator. When retail investors are overwhelmingly bearish (very negative spread), it often signals that pessimism has peaked and a market bottom is near — because those investors have already sold. Conversely, when retail investors are overwhelmingly bullish (very positive spread), it signals complacency that often precedes corrections. The AAII has surveyed its members weekly since 1987, providing nearly 40 years of retail investor sentiment data.
How We Color-Code the AAII Sentiment
Our heatmap colors each indicator based on historically significant thresholds:
Below -20%
Extreme bearishness — historically strong contrarian buy signal
Extreme bullishness — historically poor forward returns, complacency signal
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Mar 2009Financial Crisis Bottom
-51.3%
The most bearish AAII reading ever recorded coincided almost exactly with the generational market bottom. S&P 500 returned +169% over the next 5 years.
Jan 2000Dot-Com Bubble Peak
+61.7%
Near-record bullishness preceded the dot-com crash — S&P 500 fell -49% over the next 3 years as the extreme optimism proved unfounded.
Sep 2022Rate Hike Bear Market Bottom
-43.1%
Near-record bearishness near the October 2022 market bottom — S&P 500 returned +26% over the following 12 months as the extreme pessimism reversed.
Investor Checklist — Current Reading
Based on the current AAII Sentiment reading of -1.4 pp (Neutral):
ℹBalanced sentiment — no extreme contrarian signal, fundamentals matter more
✓Maintain target allocation — sentiment is not providing directional guidance
ℹMonitor for sentiment trend — moving toward extremes in either direction is more actionable
Frequently Asked Questions
Who takes the AAII survey and how reliable is it?
The AAII surveys its membership of individual (retail) investors weekly via email. Approximately 400-500 responses are collected each week. While the sample is relatively small, the survey's 37-year history and consistent methodology make it one of the most tracked sentiment indicators on Wall Street. Professional investors monitor it specifically because retail investors tend to be wrong at sentiment extremes.
Why is extreme bearishness a buy signal rather than a sell signal?
Because sentiment indicators are contrarian by nature. When retail investors are extremely bearish, it means they have already sold their stocks — removing future selling pressure. The pessimism is already priced in. When sentiment reverses from extreme bearishness, buyers return to a market where sellers are exhausted, supporting prices. The opposite is true at extreme bullishness.
What is the historical average Bull-Bear spread?
The long-term average AAII spread is approximately +6% to +8% bullish — meaning investors are typically slightly more bullish than bearish. Readings significantly above this average signal excess optimism; readings significantly below signal excess pessimism. Extremes beyond ±25% from the average have historically been the most actionable signals.
How often does the AAII sentiment signal work?
Extreme readings (beyond ±30%) have been followed by the predicted reversal in 70-80% of cases over a 12-month horizon, according to historical analysis. The signal is stronger for extreme bearishness (buying signal) than extreme bullishness (warning signal) — possibly because markets have a long-term upward bias that limits the downside from bullishness.
Should I act on every AAII reading or only extremes?
Only extremes — readings beyond ±20-25% from neutral — have reliably been contrarian signals. Weekly fluctuations within the normal range carry little predictive power. The most actionable readings are those that persist for 3-4 consecutive weeks at extreme levels, confirming genuine sentiment excess rather than a one-week anomaly.
Trending Questions
AI context · refreshed August 30, 2026
What investors are searching about this indicator right now, answered using current news and data.
1What does the current -11.5 bull-bear spread reading mean?
The bull-bear spread decreased to -11.5%, which below −10 has historically been considered notably pessimistic. Bullish sentiment fell to 32.9% while bearish sentiment rose to 44.4%, creating this negative spread.
2How extreme is the current bearish sentiment reading of 44.4%?
Bearish sentiment at 44.4% is unusually high and above its historical average of 31.5% for the 29th consecutive week. The 44.4% reading far exceeds the historical average of 31.5% and was last higher on June 11, 2026.
3Is this sentiment reading historically predictive of future market performance?
Extended periods of bearish readings above 40 to 45% have historically coincided with market bottoms and subsequent recoveries. Bearish sentiment readings above two standard deviations from the historical mean have preceded above-average S&P 500 returns over the following six to twelve months.
4What recent catalyst caused the sharp increase in bearish sentiment?
A 4.5 percentage-point jump in pessimism in a single week is one of the sharpest weekly deteriorations in sentiment this year. This week's special question asked AAII members how they would describe the earnings guidance given by companies during second-quarter 2026 earnings season.
5How does neutral sentiment fit into the current market picture?
Neutral sentiment decreased to 22.6% and is unusually low, below its historical average of 31.0% for the 25th consecutive week. That calm is not matched by how investors actually feel, suggesting a compressed distribution between bullish and bearish views.