Data through: Nov 5, 2026 · updated Nov 5 · Updates: Weekly · Next: Nov 12
WThe three bars show the last 3 weeks for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 13th percentile of all historical readings.
What this means right now: Retail investors are bearish — bears lead bulls by 10 to 25 points. It is a fairly common mood: 287 weeks since 1987. The year that followed was a little better than average. The S&P 500 was higher a year later in 221 of the 269 weeks with a full year behind them (82%), against 80% for all weeks. The average gain was 12.5%, against 10.2% for all weeks.
AAII Bull-Bear Spread · Weekly · 1987–2026
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Monthly values
AAII Bull-Bear Spread — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Nov 2026
−14.3 pp
Healthy reading
Oct 2026
−3.6 pp
Within normal range
Sep 2026
−15.4 pp
Healthy reading
Aug 2026
−11.5 pp
Healthy reading
Jul 2026
−11.1 pp
Healthy reading
Jun 2026
+8.8 pp
Within normal range
Month-end readings of the same series as the chart. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the AAII Sentiment?
The AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) Bull-Bear Spread is the share of individual investors who expect stocks to rise over the next six months minus the share who expect them to fall. A positive spread means more investors are bullish than bearish; a negative spread means more are bearish than bullish.
The survey is read as a contrarian indicator: after the weeks when the crowd was most gloomy, the S&P 500 was usually higher a year later. Retail investors have been overwhelmingly bearish — bears ahead by more than 25 points — in 97 weeks since 1987. In 65 of those weeks, about 2 in 3, the S&P 500 was already within 10% of its low of the past year. A year later the market was higher in 75 of the 97 with a year behind them, though after 51 of them it first fell 5% or more further. Extreme optimism has told less. Bulls have led by 30 points or more in 175 weeks. A year later the S&P 500 was still higher in most of those with a year behind them (117 of 175, or 67%), but by only 3.7% on average, against 10.2% for all weeks. A fall of 10% or more within six months followed 19% of those weeks, against 22% of all weeks. The AAII has surveyed its members weekly since 1987 — nearly 40 years of data on how individual investors feel.
How We Color-Code the AAII Sentiment
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below −25.0 pp
Extreme bearishness — bears outnumber bulls by more than 25 points. Rare: about 1 week in 21 since 1987 (97 of 2,048), and usually followed by a higher S&P 500 a year later
−25.0 – −10.0 pp
Bearish — bears outnumber bulls by 10 to 25 points; the mood is gloomy but not extreme
−10.0 – 10.0 pp
Balanced — bears up to 10 points ahead or bulls less than 10 ahead; no extreme either way
10.0 – 20.0 pp
Bullish — bulls outnumber bears by 10 to 20 points; the mood is upbeat
20.0 pp or above
Extreme bullishness — bulls outnumber bears by 20 points or more. Common: 464 weeks since 1987. The S&P 500 was still higher a year later about 3 times in 4, but the 12-month return averaged +6.7%, below the norm
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Mar 2009Financial Crisis Bottom
−51.3 pp
The second most bearish reading in the survey's history, and it came within days of the market's generational low of 9 March 2009. The most bearish of all, −54.0 pp, came on 19 October 1990. The S&P 500 returned +174.5% over the next 5 years.
Jan 2000Dot-Com Bubble Peak
+61.7 pp
Near-record optimism came just before the dot-com crash. The S&P 500's return over the next 3 years was −33.8%.
Sep 2022Rate Hike Bear Market Bottom
−43.1 pp
Near-record gloom, weeks before the market's October 2022 low. The S&P 500 returned +15.0% over the following 12 months.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who takes the AAII survey and how reliable is it?
The AAII surveys its members — individual investors — by email every week. Approximately 400-500 people answer each week. The sample is small, but the survey has asked the same question the same way since 1987, which makes it one of the most watched sentiment measures on Wall Street. Professionals watch it because retail investors have tended to be wrong at the extremes.
What has followed extreme bearishness in the survey?
Usually a better year than average for stocks. The idea is contrarian: when retail investors are extremely bearish, many have already sold, so the bad news is already in prices. The history agrees. Bears have outnumbered bulls by 30 points or more in 53 weeks since 1987. The S&P 500 was higher 12 months later in 44 of the 53 with a year behind them (83%), against 80% for all weeks. The average gain was +14.5%, against +10.2% for all weeks. The bullish side is weaker. After the 175 weeks with a year behind them when bulls led by 30 points or more, the market was still higher a year later in 117 (67%).
What is the historical average Bull-Bear spread?
Over the long run, bulls have outnumbered bears by approximately +6% to +8% — investors are usually a little more optimistic than pessimistic. Readings well above that show unusual optimism; readings well below show unusual gloom. The readings that have told the most are the extremes, beyond ±25% from the average.
How often does the AAII sentiment signal work?
It depends which way the crowd is leaning. Extreme gloom has been the more reliable side. After the 53 weeks since 1987 with a year behind them when bears led by 30 points or more, the S&P 500 was higher 12 months later in 44 (83%), against 80% of all weeks. Extreme optimism has been less reliable. After the 175 weeks with a year behind them when bulls led by 30 or more, the market was lower a year later in only 58 (33%) — the fall a contrarian would expect came about 1 time in 3. One reason may be that stocks rise more often than they fall, which limits how wrong an optimistic crowd can be.
Do ordinary weekly readings carry information, or only extremes?
Mostly the extremes. When bears were up to 10 points ahead or bulls less than 10 ahead — 767 weeks since 1987 — the year that followed looked like any other. The S&P 500 was higher 12 months later 81% of the time, against 80% for all weeks. The average gain was +11.2%, against +10.2%. Only the extremes stand apart: the market was higher a year later 83% of the time after bears led by 30 points or more, and 67% after bulls led by 30 or more.