Data through: Oct 16, 2026 · updated Oct 16 · Updates: Daily (market days)
WThe three bars show the last 3 weeks for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 91st percentile historically — elevated vs historical norms.
What this means right now: Oil is between $90 and $110, about 1 day in 6 since 2000 (17%). Headline CPI has moved with oil the following month on the site's data, and core CPI only slightly.
WTI Crude Oil · Daily · 2000–2026
NBER recessions
Scroll to read · zoom and pan in Expand
Monthly values
WTI Crude Oil — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Oct 2026
$99.04
Concerning reading
Sep 2026
$90.42
Concerning reading
Aug 2026
$85.76
Within normal range
Jul 2026
$84.67
Within normal range
Jun 2026
$69.50
Healthy reading
May 2026
$87.36
Within normal range
Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from wti_oil. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the WTI Oil?
WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is the main US crude oil benchmark, priced per barrel for delivery at Cushing, Oklahoma. It feeds the cost of fuel, transport and many goods.
Oil reaches consumer prices quickly. On the site's data since 2000, a $10 move in WTI has gone with about 0.3 percentage point of headline CPI over the following three months. High oil acts as a tax on consumers and businesses, and low oil eases costs for energy users.
How We Color-Code the WTI Oil
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below $60.00
Below $60 — the most common range since 2000: about 4 days in 10 (43%)
$60.00 – $75.00
$60 to $75 — about 1 day in 4 since 2000 (23%)
$75.00 – $90.00
$75 to $90 — about 1 day in 6 since 2000 (16%)
$90.00 – $110.00
$90 to $110 — about 1 day in 6 since 2000 (17%)
Above $110.00
Above $110 — reached in 2008, 2011, 2013, 2022 and 2026; a recession followed only in 2008
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Jul 2008Pre-GFC peak
$145.29
The record close since 2000, reached with the 2008 recession already under way. By December 19 oil had lost 77% of that price.
Apr 2020COVID demand collapse
−$37.63
The only close below zero on the site's data, as storage filled during the pandemic shutdown.
Mar 2022Russia-Ukraine spike
$123.70
The 2022 high, closed on March 8, two weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine.
Frequently Asked Questions
What's the difference between WTI and Brent?
WTI is the US benchmark, priced at Cushing, Oklahoma. Brent is the European and global benchmark, from the North Sea. The site holds no Brent series, so it does not track the gap between them.
How quickly does oil pass through to inflation?
Quickly to headline prices. On the site's data since 2000, the closest link is with the next month's change in headline CPI (a correlation of 0.53), fading to nothing by the third month. Core CPI, which leaves out energy, shows only a small echo in the first two months (about 0.17) and none after.
Has oil come before recessions?
Not reliably in the site's record, which begins in 2000. Of nine oil spikes from then to September 2026, when the price rose 50% or more in a year, one was followed by a recession within a year (2007–08). Of the three recessions since 2000, one came after a spike; oil had fallen before the other two.
How does WTI crude oil price affect US inflation and what CPI components does it flow through?
Crude feeds gasoline and heating fuel directly, and transport costs and goods prices indirectly. On the site's data since 2000, a $10 move in WTI has gone with about 0.3 percentage point of headline CPI over the following three months (a correlation of 0.58).
How does US shale production respond to oil prices?
Shale wells are drilled and brought online far faster than deepwater or oil-sands projects, so US supply can respond to prices on a much shorter cycle. The site holds no rig-count or production series, so it does not measure that response.