Source: FRED: SOFR, DTB3 (Computed: SOFR minus 3-Month T-Bill)
Data through: Oct 15, 2026 · updated Oct 17 · Updates: Daily
WThe three bars show the last 3 weeks for this indicator, oldest left to newest right. Bar height reflects each reading relative to the other two — the tallest is the highest of the three, the shortest the lowest.
Historical context: Currently in the 11th percentile — near historically low/favorable levels.
What this means right now: SOFR is below the 3-month bill yield — the case on about 5 in 10 of all days since 2018 (46%), including almost every day of 2022. An overnight rate below a 3-month rate is the curve's normal shape, not a stress reading.
TED Spread (SOFR) · Daily · 2018–2026
NBER recessions
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Monthly values
TED Spread (SOFR) — the last 12 months
Every month's reading, with the band the heatmap gives it. The chart above shows the same series in full.
Month
Value
Band
Oct 2026
−0.21%
Very strong reading
Sep 2026
−0.13%
Very strong reading
Aug 2026
−0.10%
Very strong reading
Jul 2026
−0.03%
Very strong reading
Jun 2026
−0.06%
Very strong reading
May 2026
0.03%
Healthy reading
Month-end readings of the same series the chart shows, from ted_spread. Values are the current record, not point-in-time: a month that has since been revised shows its revised value.
What is the TED Spread?
The modern TED spread is SOFR (the Secured Overnight Financing Rate) minus the 3-month Treasury bill yield. It measures what the market charges for overnight lending against Treasury collateral, relative to the risk-free bill rate. When cash is scarce, SOFR can jump well above bills as firms hold on to it.
In its one crisis, March 2020, the spread moved with stocks rather than ahead of them: it passed 0.1 on February 27, the day the S&P 500 completed its first 10% fall. It was back near zero from March 16, a week before stocks hit their low.
Limitations: the original TED spread, LIBOR against T-bills, ended when LIBOR was retired at the end of 2021. This SOFR version begins in April 2018, so it does not cover 2008. SOFR and bills also diverge for technical reasons such as quarter-end balance-sheet limits and Fed reserve management, so a single day's spike is not necessarily credit stress.
How We Color-Code the TED Spread
Our heatmap colors this indicator against historically significant thresholds:
Below 0.00%
SOFR below the 3-month bill — the most common state, about 5 in 10 of all days since 2018 (46%); the curve's normal shape, not a stress reading
0.00% – 0.10%
Very tight — calm funding markets, about 1 day in 3 since 2018 (704 of 2,132)
0.10% – 0.50%
Modest spread — some friction in funding markets, about 1 day in 5 since 2018 (423 of 2,132)
0.50% – 1.00%
Elevated — funding stress on 22 days since 2018, mostly around quarter-ends and tax dates, and nine days in March 2020
Above 1.00%
Severe — one day in the record, September 17, 2019
Historical Extremes — What Happened Next?
When this indicator reaches extreme levels, history shows consistent patterns:
Sep 2019Repo market squeeze
3.30%
SOFR jumped to 5.25% while 3-month bills stayed near 2%, as overnight repo markets ran short of cash. The spread was back at 0.06 two days later, with no wider crisis.
Jun 2022Fed hiking cycle inversion
−1.09%
The lowest reading in the series, during the fastest rate rises in decades: bill yields had already priced in hikes that SOFR had not yet reached. It reflected the speed of tightening, not credit stress.
Mar 2020COVID dash for cash
0.87%
The high of the series' one crisis, reached as stocks were falling. The spread was back near zero by March 16, a week before stocks hit bottom.
Frequently Asked Questions
What happened to the original TED Spread?
The original TED spread measured 3-month LIBOR against T-bills. LIBOR, the interbank benchmark, rose far above bills in the 2008 crisis. New loans stopped using it at the end of 2021, and the bank-panel 3-month dollar rate ended in June 2023. SOFR, a rate based on actual overnight Treasury repo trades, replaced it as the benchmark.
What is SOFR and why does it matter?
SOFR (the Secured Overnight Financing Rate) is the overnight rate for borrowing cash against US Treasury securities, the largest and most liquid overnight lending market. Unlike LIBOR, which was based on bank estimates, SOFR is based on actual transactions. The New York Fed publishes it each business morning.
Why did SOFR spike to 5.25% in September 2019?
Corporate tax payments and a large Treasury settlement fell on the same day, draining bank reserves and leaving a shortage of cash for overnight lending. The spread went from 0.48 on September 16 to 3.30 on September 17, and was back at 0.06 two days later. The Fed's balance sheet, which had shrunk to $3.76 trillion by late August 2019, grew to $4.17 trillion by the end of the year.
Is a negative TED Spread normal?
Yes. SOFR is an overnight rate and the bill a 3-month rate, so when the curve slopes up the spread is slightly negative. It has been below zero on nearly half of all days since 2018 (46%).
How quickly does the TED spread move?
Within a day: in September 2019 SOFR went from 2.43% to 5.25% overnight. Its one crisis shows the limit as a warning: in March 2020 the spread moved with the stock market, not ahead of it, and it can also spike for technical reasons unrelated to credit.