The Kalecki–Levy identity, computed on today's data: an accounting decomposition that must balance — where each dollar of corporate profit arithmetically came from. This page is not a timing tool — the timing lenses live on the main page.
AS OF 2026Q2 · estimate of Sep 30, 2026 · revision stage 3 of 3 · all sources through 2026Q2 — 2026Q3 data has begun arriving (4 of 8 sources); profits and the full mix follow with the ~late-Nov release — the display shows 2026Q2, the latest complete quarter.
CHARACTERIZATION, NEVER A SIGNAL — PERSISTENCE DESCRIBES; IT DOES NOT PREDICT
Today's mix is mixed — no single family of sources carries it; the cards below give the full accounting.
These columns sum to reported corporate profits exactly — every quarter since 1947; the statistical discrepancy is a real, small leg, not a plug.
The live era (2020–) is federal-deficit-dominant, and the main page reads the margin at +1.35σ versus trend — that period rides on a mixed base.
Today's level by source — each source's share of GDP against its own middle-50% band, with its move vs four quarters ago; this quarter's change by source is the main page's "why" line.
Bars: today's contribution (dark marker) against the source's own middle-50% historical band (grey underlay), % of GDP, zero aligned on the one shared axis. Direction reads are vs four quarters ago — stated on every chip. Latest-basis data, labeled; September's annual update revises history and the methodology says so.
| period | avg margin | character (from the computed dominants) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020–LIVE | 10.67% | federal-deficit-dominant + the capex boom |
THE FULL MIX (%GDP) net investment +4.31 · govt investment +0.78 · dividends +7.34 · household saving −6.10 · govt federal +7.87 · govt state local +0.16 · current account −3.53 · stat discrepancy −0.15 n=26q | ||
| 2009–2019 | 9.88% | dividends-led (the deficit narrative for this period fails its own arithmetic — 5.73 vs 5.33) |
| 2001–2008 | 7.83% | investment-led |
| 1980–2000 | 5.91% | investment-led |
| 1947–1979 | 6.26% | investment-led |
Era boundaries frozen at the charter; a new era row only by recorded amendment. Only the top row is live.
"Never-seen levels" is true of software only (2.52% of GDP vs the 2001Q1 peak of 1.55%, still rising); equipment (2.83%) sits below its dot-com peak (2.91%, 2000Q4); structures (2.93%) below its own 2023Q4 peak (3.39%). Latest-basis data, labeled. The acceleration rule tested here was a documented pass — the methodology carries the full record. The 2000–02 unwind is shown as history, not forecast: one corporation's capex is another's revenue, so the unwind pulled the investment source down. Profits did not follow: the federal budget's swing from surplus to deficit more than made up for it, and the profit share rose from late 2000 to the end of 2002.